Yesterday I reported on what we might see in the lowlands this coming winter. You should read this story first to get an idea of ​​what we generally expect in the Pacific Northwest. The The post is all about what we might see in the Cascades. Particularly important for the ski/snowboard/snowplay industry. Be sure to read the previous post first.

First…

MOST WINTER IN LA NIÑA ARE GOOD FOR NW SKIERS

On average, more snow falls than normal during these winters, and it also tends to be a little cooler than normal. Look at the temperature anomaly for all La Niña winters since 2000; A clear signal that it is cooler than normal across the Pacific Northwest!

We used to often say that these winters were wetter than normal (whiter in the mountains), but that hasn’t been the case so far this century. From 1970 to 1999, it was a clear signal that conditions in the Pacific Northwest were wetter than normal

But in the last quarter century (since 2000) something seems to have changed. The last 10 La Niña winters have been dryer than average across the West Coast. Not EVERY winter, but dry rather than wet.

So let’s take a look at Cascade snowfall during the 25 La Niña winters since 1951 at Government Camp. The average annual accumulation (for each year) is 254″ back in time, but only 234″ in the last 30 years. This peak in the Cascades is receiving less snow than it did 50 years ago.

If we add Mt. Hood Meadows, which has an elevation of about 5,300 feet, the total is higher each winter. Most La Niña winters also thrive up there

How about the first half of the season, when everyone is excited to hit the slopes? Note that November and December also see more snowfall than average, not dramatically higher, but generally we see more snowfall earlier in these winters. Note that some of these winters still started slowly: 2011, 2017, 2000 (terrible year), 1999, 1995. This winter there is a better chance that we will have some good skiing in time for the Christmas holidays. It surely HAS to be better than the terrible conditions last Christmas, right???

As for November only? Maybe an early start??? We have no idea. Look how different every November has behaved since 1980! Oooh, look at that 80+ inches of snow in November 2010!

SUMMARY

• There’s a very good chance that this ski season will be significantly better than last year, plan for it.
• Expect snow conditions to generally improve as the season progresses
• There is no reason to believe that the ski season will start early. Don’t panic if the start is slow.
• Good conditions should continue well into March as La Niña springs tend to start off slow and cold
• Snowpack will likely be above normal across much of the Oregon and Washington Cascades this rainy season. This bodes well for water supplies next summer.

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