Lichtman, whose “Key to the White House” prediction model consists of 13 true-or-false questions, said in the interview that eight key factors work in Harris’ favor.

According to Lichtman, there were three decisive factors in Trump’s favor: First, Harris is not an incumbent. Second, in his opinion, Harris is not a “unique, widely inspiring, once-in-a-generation candidate. And third, the Democratic Party lost control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.

But eight other keys were in the majority.

Aside from benefiting from positive short- and long-term economic conditions and legislative successes under President Joe Biden’s administration, Harris’ candidacy has not been overshadowed by scandals or ongoing social unrest, Lichtman said.

Additionally, Harris would not have to go through a primary to replace Biden as the nominee, he added. Lichtman said it helped that she would have to run against Trump, who “appeals only to a narrow base.”

Harris, he said, also has no third-party challenger since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign last month.

The last two key factors – foreign policy failures and successes – would not be as important because Trump would only have five key factors even if he were against Harris, Lichtman said.

Lichtman’s assessment represents a slight departure from his last prediction in July, when he told the Wall Street Journal that the Democratic Party should stick with Biden if it wants to keep the White House.

“By running, Biden is accomplishing two important things. Biden is resigning, they are obviously losing office, and it is not at all clear that there will not be a major party fight,” he said at the time.

Although Biden eventually dropped out, Harris was able to avoid a primary. Harris not only secured Biden’s support, but was also able to unite her party behind her in a short period of time.

Of course, Lichtman’s predictions were not always correct. In the 2000 election, he was wrong when he predicted a victory for Al Gore rather than for eventual challenger George W. Bush.

This was the only election result that Lichtman was wrong about since he began making his predictions for the 1984 election.

Representatives of the Harris campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment outside regular business hours.