When we spoke today on 670 The Score, along with President of Business Crane Kenney, about budget planning, Cubs President of Baseball Jed Hoyer said the Cubs are expected to exceed the luxury tax THIS year. I had to do a double take, because that’s something that wasn’t on our radar from the outside, as far as those calculations go (from the outside, it’s never precise, and sometimes there are surprises when the league does the accounting at the end of the year).

The way Hoyer put it, the Cubs thought they would fall under the first tier of the luxury tax this year, but that was BEFORE they re-signed Cody Bellinger. It was a conscious decision to re-sign him, which they thought was a good deal, even if it pushed them over the competitive equalization tax.

I’m baffled. It’s nice to know that the luxury tax isn’t a hard cap on payroll — and it seemed like that’s why Hoyer and Kenney gave away that information — but exceeding the tax THIS year on THIS roster feels like a misstep. Especially considering they might be only slightly over it, rather than going significantly over it and adding that one final (bullpen?) piece in January or February.

Keep in mind that exceeding the luxury tax by even a penny has a number of baseball-related consequences (among them, you get less compensation when qualified free agents leave (not an issue for the Cubs this offseason), and signing qualified free agents costs you more at the draft and IFA (that sucks!)). And also remember that the actual tax itself increases the more CONSECUTIVE years you exceed the limit. And I also believe that large market clubs that disproportionately pay into the revenue sharing system face additional financial consequences in that system when they exceed the tax.

In other words, it never makes sense to go over the tax by a small amount. If you’re going to go over, then OVER. Maybe the Cubs will actually be a significant amount over the first tier of the tax at $237 million when the final settlement comes. I guess we’ll see. I knew the Cubs were at least close to the limit (as I mentioned this morning), but I assumed they carefully managed to stay UNDER that limit this year. I guess the Cubs wanted everyone to know that was wrong.

More on that in a minute, I think. I need to process the numbers and get back to it. Maybe that’s more encouraging about salary cap issues than discouraging about roster construction and planning? I mean, we all always say how much we wish the Cubs would just spend more than the luxury tax and not worry about a specific cap. It feels like that’s what Hoyer and Kenney were saying?

(Bonus question: If the Cubs really stumble in the next two weeks, will they try to put someone on waivers before the end of the month to save some salary and get back under the CBT?)