WASHINGTON (TNND) — Respected statistician Nate Silver released the results of his “final and definitive” election forecast model on Tuesday.

Silver, the founder of poll aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, ran 80,000 simulations of the matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris won in 40,012 of those simulations, Trump had 39,988 simulated victories.

“Of (Trump’s victories), 39,718 were absolute victories for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exactly 269-269 ties in the Electoral College: These ties will likely ultimately lead to Trump victories in the U.S. House of Representatives,” Silver wrote.

Silver’s new polling website, Silver Bulletin, compiles polling averages for each battleground state. These averages show razor-thin margins in several critical states, including a 0.1% margin between Trump and Harris in Pennsylvania.

“This is my fifth presidential election – and my ninth general election overall, if you count the midterms – and there has never been anything like it,” Silver wrote in his newsletter. “From the model’s perspective, however, the race is literally closer than a coin toss: empirically, heads win 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’ 50.015 percent.”

The first polls will close at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday evening in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Exit polls are expected to provide insight into turnout between male and female voters, which could be important given the gender gap that emerged during the election.

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