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    • Hurricane Rafael knocks out power in Cuba; Path forecast uncertain
    Michigan

    Hurricane Rafael knocks out power in Cuba; Path forecast uncertain

    Caradoc Wyn Posted on

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    Hurricane Rafael made landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm, bringing sustained winds of up to 110 mph (180 kph), knocking out the island’s power grid before the system headed toward — and possibly toward — the Gulf of Mexico of the USA

    The National Hurricane Center said the storm hit the Cuban province of Artemisa, east of Playa Majana, at 4:15 p.m. ET. In its 1 a.m. update, the hurricane center said Rafael was 115 miles (185 kilometers) west-northwest of Havana. The storm’s maximum sustained wind speeds had dropped to 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.

    As the center of Rafael moved toward the Gulf, “life-threatening storm surge” and flash flooding occurred in parts of western Cuba, the hurricane center said Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, the island’s entire population of 10 million was once again in the dark, a crisis repeated several times in the last three weeks.

    Rafael’s powerful blows come as Cuba is still recovering from the initial collapse of its power grid on October 18, followed by the impact of Hurricane Oscar, a Category 1 storm that inundated the country with heavy rains and killed at least six people last month. The saturated ground will increase the chances of Rafael triggering flash floods and mudslides, officials said.

    Rafael was a tropical storm Tuesday afternoon, but it rapidly strengthened over Caribbean waters that are slightly warmer than usual for this time of year, with temperatures in the 80s. The storm’s maximum sustained winds increased by 55 mph in 24 hours.

    Hurricane Rafael Tracker: The storm is expected to make landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday

    Will Rafael arrive in the US?

    The NHC says the storm will bring tropical storm conditions to the Florida Keys and could potentially trigger tornadoes across the southwest mainland of the state.

    Rafael is expected to follow a northwesterly path after leaving Cuba and “meander across the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week,” the hurricane center said, adding that those in the southern and southwestern portions of the Gulf You should keep track of your progress.

    As the storm rages in the Gulf, it is expected to weaken as it encounters wind shear, drier air and cooler water. Long-range forecast models disagree, showing the storm could have direct impacts anywhere from eastern Mexico to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.

    “Once Rafael arrives in the Gulf of Mexico, subtle differences in intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on his final trajectory,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Bill Deger. “It is also possible that Rafael could be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipate in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.”

    According to AccuWeather, steering winds from a storm over the southern United States are increasing uncertainty in the forecast. The hurricane center warned that there is also “above-average uncertainty regarding the intensity of Rafael over the remainder of the forecast period.”

    Despite expected weakening in the Gulf, Rafael and its winds will be large and strong enough to produce rough seas and life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the hurricane center said.

    Rafael adds to expected heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States

    Marc Chenard, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said heavy rainfall is forecast for the Southeast on Wednesday night and Thursday, due to an interaction between a low point over the region and a broad area of ​​disturbed weather in the tropics.

    The potential exists for 4 to 8 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches in isolated locations throughout the Florida Panhandle and possibly more than 8 inches in locations extending northeast into lowland South Carolina overnight Wednesday and into Thursday.

    A corridor of mid- and higher-altitude winds is expected to help produce the moisture, and moisture from the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic is expected to further increase rainfall. Chenard said Rafael, nestled within this larger area of ​​disturbed weather, plays at least some role in helping to increase moisture from the tropics.

    − Dinah Voyle’s powder

    Another storm is brewing in the Caribbean behind Rafael

    Meteorologists monitored a storm brewing in the Caribbean Sea as Rafael barreled toward Cuba.

    According to the National Hurricane Center, the system of low-pressure showers and thunderstorms was located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands Wednesday afternoon.

    Federal forecasts say the system could gradually develop as it moves west near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before approaching the Bahamas, but there is only a 30% chance of it forming over the next week.

    According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, Rafael was the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, there are 14 storms per year.

    Rafael was also the 11th hurricane of the season, well above the average of seven. This year has been an extremely active hurricane season, which meteorologists attribute in part to record warm water temperatures. Since accurate records began in 1851, there have only been seven other seasons with up to 11 Atlantic hurricanes to that date, Klotzbach said.

    Hurricane Rafael storm tracker

    Contributors: Gabe Hauari, Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY; Reuters

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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    Caradoc Wyn
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