Forbes McKenzieCEO of McKenzie Intelligence Services Ltd, outlines a political future of how geospatial technology will transform government strategy

From the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to military coups in Africa, geopolitical instability is at its highest level in nearly eight decades. Indeed, escalating competition between China and America, as well as shifting global political alliances, have led the US National Intelligence Council to predict a period of unprecedented turbulence reminiscent of the Cold War in its Global Trends 2040 report.

With every conflict, crisis and change of power comes significant risks to governments and economies. Moreover, protecting populations is becoming an increasingly challenging task as nations grapple with where best to deploy much-needed efforts and resources.

However, we also live in an age of tremendous technological advancement, where cutting-edge geospatial technologies – from geographic information systems (GIS) and sophisticated geospatial satellites to remote sensing instruments and global positioning systems (GPS) – offer unmatched capabilities for managing complex geopolitical situations.

Using the power of geodata for Government strategy

Geospatial technologies enable governments to collect, analyze and interpret current geographic data, capturing real-time information that can be overlaid on maps with various other datasets to provide a complete and comprehensive picture.

Geofencing, for example, enables real-time tracking of assets and the movement of people in high-risk areas. This technology can map conflict zones, assess areas of electoral change, and monitor areas and populations facing sociopolitical unrest. For governments, these nuanced insights are invaluable, allowing officials to determine safe and sustainable courses of action.

Satellite data in focus

Artificial risks such as conflict and social unrest are notoriously difficult to calculate and incorporate into plans due to their rapid evolution and unpredictability. Moreover, outcomes often depend on the reactions of different actors, making planning even more difficult.

High-resolution satellites and other geospatial technologies solve this problem by providing real-time insights into on-the-ground conditions across vast areas—including areas that have traditionally been difficult to map. This is critical for understanding complex terrain and dangerous sociopolitical conditions.

Geospatial technologies: effective risk management

One of the greatest benefits of geospatial technologies is that they enable governments to delineate developing risk areas and respond quickly to serious situations such as outbreaks of violence. This information also helps plan careful and deliberate responses, and also ensures that malicious actors do not go unpunished or undetected. The discovery of a replica aircraft carrier in Iran in 2019 underscores this and proves how useful geospatial technologies can be in uncovering potential war crimes and hidden threats.

Precision in risk intervention with geospatial technologies

Of course, geospatial technology will also allow governments to identify areas where risk reduction or intervention is needed, allowing for more targeted and efficient resource allocation. Fast information will allow countries to send aid to affected areas more precisely and quickly, and leaders will be able to track vulnerable populations along the way to ensure better protection.

Improved communication

Effective communication with other countries, authorities and rescue organizations is also crucial. Geospatial technologies ensure that all parties remain informed and avoid delays that could put lives or investments at risk.

Detailed risk mitigation

Once governments and all other stakeholders agree on a common solution, comprehensive mitigation plans can be developed and adopted. Up-to-date geospatial data is essential in providing countries with the right defense tools.

Maintaining critical operations with geodata

In addition to defending territories and populations, governments must also maintain vital operations such as transport links in times of crisis. Geospatial data is key to safely maintaining this function. It enables governments to protect the economy by keeping operations running as much as possible without putting people at risk.

Combating disinformation

Finally, a critical but less recognized benefit of geospatial technologies is their role in combating dangerous disinformation. When satellites tracked the whereabouts of Kim Jong Un as he was declared dead or missing in April 2020, world leaders gained important insights into the truth. Without these insights and accurate information, appropriate responses would have been impossible.

Overcoming blind spots

Ultimately, satellite imagery provides an additional pair of extremely precise, rapid-firing eyes, allowing insight into areas that are otherwise off the political radar. In regions with media bans, for example, it is still possible to find out what is happening on the ground. One example of this is the use of geospatial technology to assess the damage from an Iranian missile attack on the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq, even though the population was denied access to the area.

Geospatial technologies as a basis for future policy

Another important point to remember is that the information collected using geospatial technologies serves as a historical record and forms the basis for better response and policy in future crises.

Practical considerations for governments

For governments to truly reap these benefits, however, they need to invest in the right processing technologies. Because data sets are so large and constantly updated, AI analytics is the only viable way to process information quickly and enable conclusions to be drawn in near real-time. In addition to investing in the infrastructure to collect, store and process data in real time, governments also need to deploy the right AI analytics tools to produce meaningful analyses. These can then be supported by technical, humanitarian and military expertise to reach the right conclusions.

Equally important is fostering evidence-based partnerships with international organizations, research institutions and private sector companies, especially when responding to unprecedented data findings. The difference this can make to national and international security is sure to pay off compared to initial technology investments.

Final Thoughts: Geospatial and AI-Driven Geopolitical Data Intelligence

Geospatial and AI-powered geopolitical data intelligence can save time, money and lives. This technology not only protects public infrastructure but also increases public safety and supports strategic decisions while optimizing resource allocation.

As the Chartered Institute of Internal Auditors recommends in its report Navigating Geopolitical Risk (February 2023), governments must move from reactive responses to detailed scenario planning and horizon-watching, and take a long-term perspective on geopolitics. The use of geospatial technology is key in this, as it offers a path to more informed, proactive and effective management of complex and ever-changing geopolitical landscapes.

This article was written and provided by Forbes McKenzie, CEO of McKenzie Intelligence Services Ltd.