The TCU Horned Frogs (3-2, 1-1) continue their Big 12 slate Friday night against the Houston Cougars (1-4, 0-2). TCU is the -16.5 favorite over Houston and sportsbooks are pricing the game at 51.5 points over/under as of Thursday morning.

Adjusted for the burden (think of it like a sports betting tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 85.2%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 3-2 against the spread, covering last week’s +2 mark with a 38-27 win over Kansas. The over is also 4:1, with 65 points being enough to reach a final score of 58.5 points.

Houston is off to a disastrous start. Not only are the Cougars 1-4 overall – with their only win over Rice (ranked 119th in the FBS in power) – but they haven’t scored a single point in two Big 12 League games. Against FBS competition and UNLV, Houston has scored a combined 19 points in total Points.

In a transition year under Andy Avalos, TCU failed to get its defense going. The Horned Frogs rank 126th in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed (which, according to the definition of third- and fourth-down success rate, means the opposing offense has converted). The defensive success rate (40% of the distance on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third/fourth down) is 100th. Of particular concern is the run.

Houston’s only saving grace on offense is explosive plays. Few and far apart, Four of Houston’s five offensive touchdowns came from more than 35 yards away. The only outlier was a one-yard TD rush that resulted from an interception returned to the… one-yard line. Consistent action just wasn’t a thing for the Cougars this season.

But given the ever-present threat of explosive plays, I’m avoiding scoring on TCU. Especially if this game goes to waste, I don’t want a long score to become the bad beat of the night.

Staying ahead of the market with Teams is a profitable endeavor. Last week we discovered that Kansas isn’t as good as the early betting lines suggested. As a result, we won the bet.

This week I’m ahead of the market on the Houston defense. Even if the offense is lazy (to be kind), Houston’s defense under coordinator Shiel Wood has been quite good. The Cougars held Iowa State to 56% of its scoring average (20 points vs. 36-point average), UNLV to 74% of its average (27 vs. 36.3) and Oklahoma to 56% of its average (16 vs. 36.3). 28.6). The only team to score above its season average was Cincinnati, which scored 34 points (versus 32.3 average) and once on a short field.

Houston limits explosive plays through the air. I expect TCU to take a more conservative approach – especially since Houston isn’t a big scoring threat – and play an offense more in line with what the NFL looks like this year.

The result is more plays, less explosives and more free time. Houston can provide some resistance defensively, especially along the defensive line.

2024 balance: 3-3

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