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    • Here’s who’s leading the presidential race between Trump and Harris in Georgia
    Massachusetts

    Here’s who’s leading the presidential race between Trump and Harris in Georgia

    Idris Bevan Posted on

    Topline

    Former President Donald Trump is on track to surpass Georgia after losing there to President Joe Biden in 2020, but the latest poll shows Harris has narrowed his lead in the state, which narrowed during Trump’s time in office due to diversification changed from red to purple in the Atlanta suburbs.

    Important facts

    An Emerson College poll on Thursday showed Trump leading Georgia by one point (49% to 48%), after the group’s September poll showed him with a three-point lead.

    Most reputable polls over the past month show Trump ahead in Georgia, including a Quinnipiac University poll released Oct. 1 that showed him with a six-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, and a Cook Political Report poll released Oct. 2. October, which shows him two points ahead of points.

    Trump has a 1.3-point margin of victory for Georgia in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, 1.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker and 0.9 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.

    Until Biden’s victory in Georgia in 2020 by nearly 12,000 votes, the state had not elected a Republican presidential candidate since 1992, but Georgia has moved to switch state status over the past decade as Democrats increased their margins in federal and state elections have improved.

    Georgia’s shift from red to purple is largely attributed to diversification in metro Atlanta, where the population grew 15% between 2010 and 2020 while the white population shrank 2%, according to the most recent census data.

    Hillary Clinton won eight of 10 counties in the Atlanta suburbs in the 2016 presidential election despite losing statewide, and former Rep. Stacy Abrams and President Joe Biden won most suburbs in the 2018 gubernatorial race and by even larger margins in the 2020 presidential election Clinton. according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis — a reflection of a broader nationwide shift to the left among suburban voters.

    Georgia Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock also flipped Georgia’s Senate seats from red to blue in 2020, further cementing the state’s status as a battleground.

    Cons

    Republicans control the Senate, House and governor’s office in Georgia, and nine of the 14 representatives in Congress are Republicans. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp fended off challenges from former Democratic Rep. Stacy Abrams in both 2018 and 2022, increasing his victory in the last election from one point to seven points.

    Big number

    2.5. According to the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, Harris is ahead of Trump by as many points nationally, while the RealClearPolitics poll tracker shows her with a lead of 2.1 points.

    Important background

    Georgia is one of seven swing states that are expected to determine who wins the presidential election. Poll trackers show Harris leading Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Trump leads in North Carolina and Georgia. The most likely path to victory for Harris is through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which together have 44 electoral votes. If she wins all three and all other non-swing states that Biden won in 2020, she would reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election. If Trump wins one of the Rust Belt states (most likely Pennsylvania, according to polls) and also wins Georgia and North Carolina, he would likely break the 270 mark.

    Further reading

    2024 Election Swing State Polls: Harris Leads by 1 Point in 7 Battlegrounds in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris leads in 4 new national polls – with a virtual tie in swing states (Forbes)

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    Idris Bevan
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