Start with the perception of the Florida Gators, who last week, after winning two straight, had full momentum and a win in their sights with a minute left at No. 8 Tennessee but opted to head for overtime play instead of going for the jugular on the road and left Rocky Top with a 23-17 loss. They also went with the starting quarterback Graham Mertz lost the season due to a knee injury, leaving the remainder of the 2024 season to the talented rookie DJ Lagway. Lagway wasn’t great at replacing Mertz in the second half last week, but he did throw the 27-yard touchdown pass Chimere Dike With 29 seconds left, the Gators pulled within one point and gave Coach a big decision Billy Napier‘s plate.

At first, Napier went for two (and the win), but after the Volunteers called a panic timeout, the UF coach changed his mind. Maybe he didn’t like his substitute game with two points. Maybe he wasn’t sure about Lagway in this situation. Whatever the case, UF’s only possession in OT yielded three snaps, minus-4 yards and a missed field goal. UT ran five plays and scored one touchdown.

The Gators (3-3, 1-2), who appeared to be out of their league in early home losses to Miami and Texas A&M, left the Vols in the dust on the road and are now back home Saturday night to face the SEC opponent Kentucky (3-3, 1-3) and trying to maintain that confidence – with this rookie QB – against an opponent that has had UF’s number most of the last six seasons.

(Read lead writer Scott Carter’s “Opening Kickoff” breakdown here)

The Wildcats have won three straight in the series and four of the last six. They did this after losing 31 times in a row from 1987 to 2017. The first three of those losses could have gone one way or the other, with UF typically destroying itself through missed defensive assignments (Bennie Snell’s 178 yards rushing in 1818), eye-watering penalties (14 for 115 yards at Lexington in ’21 ) or crucial turnovers (a game-winning pick-6 by Anthony Richardson in 1922).

Then came the debacle of 2023, a 33-10 loss that was never close as the Gators did next to nothing right, allowing UK to score the first 23 points of the game with Ray Davis trailing, a school record of 280 yards and three touchdowns scored while committing 10 penalties, including a pair of fatal fumbles on special teams.

Kentucky hasn’t beaten Florida four times in a row since 1948-51.

The Wildcats have had a strange season. They were outscored 31-6 in their second game at home against South Carolina, then put No. 1 Georgia to shame a week later before losing 13-12 at home. Then there was a stunning 20-17 road loss to No. 6 Ole Miss, followed by a 20-13 home loss to Vanderbilt, which was still on a sugar high when it beat No. 1 Alabama the week before.

Go ahead and try to figure it all out.

UK’s offense ranks 116th nationally at just 321.7 yards per game, including second-to-last in the SEC, and even lower in passing offense with Brock Vandagriff (951 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) under center lies and has a total unit of only 168.3 through the air. Davis, the Gator killer from a year ago, is gone and the Cats’ rushing numbers are down to 153.3 per game, which ranks 75th nationally, with Demi Sumo-Karngbaye (380 yards, 4 touchdowns) back is used by the Cats.

UF will counter with a defense that plays much, much better than what it showed against UM and A&M, especially after limiting Tennessee and the nation’s fifth-ranked offense to just 312 total yards of offense. The Gators rank 59th nationally with 402.8 yards per game (11th in the SEC), but that average drops to 355.0 over the last three games.

For Florida, Lagway had played every third series since bursting onto the scene with his record 456-yard performance in a 45-7 win over Samford on Sept. 7, when he started in place of Mertz, who was sidelined with a concussion. This will be the first SEC start of 2023 USA today Offensive Player of the Year who has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 765 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions so far, but he had a full week of first-team reps to prepare and build confidence.

UF ranks 59th in offense (402.8 ypg), including 81st rushing (141.8) and 39th passing (261.0), but those numbers mean nothing relative to the season’s record because Mertz is gone.

Yes, a lot has changed for the Gators lately.

Will their recent fortunes against the Wildcats follow that trend?

Coverage begins at 7:45 p.m. on SEC Network, with Dave Neal’s crew on play-by-play, former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray on analysis and Marilyn Payne on the sideline. The Gators Sports Network broadcast from Learfield will air pregame coverage starting at 4:45 p.m., ultimately leaving Sean Kelley and Shane Matthews in the locker room while Tate Casey reports from the field. For GSN stations click here.

The game will be re-aired Sunday at 8 p.m. and Friday at 3 p.m., both on SEC Network.

Finally, follow senior writer Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) for commentary and analysis during the game. FloridaGators.com will feature full post-game coverage late Saturday evening and follow-up content on Sunday.

Email Chris Harry at [email protected].