Three seasons into the next-gen era, NASCAR has the playoff chaos it wanted.

In the first half of this year’s postseason, there were more playoff drivers finishing 25th or worse and fewer playoff drivers finishing in the top 10 since 2017 – the debut of the current postseason version.

Already in these playoffs, three of the five races were won by non-playoff drivers – including both races in this round. The result is that William Byron is the only driver who has secured a spot in the next round in Sunday’s elimination race at the Charlotte Roval (2 p.m. ET on NBC).

Two of the top four drivers in the points at the end of the regular season are in danger of being eliminated on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick, who won the regular season championship, is 14 points above the cutline. Chase Elliott, who finished third in the regular season, enters Sunday’s race in the final transfer spot. He is 13 points above the cut line.

Despite the chaos, this is still a time of the season that Elliott says he enjoys.

“I’ve definitely had a lot of fun the last 10 weeks just because there’s something on the line,” he said last month before the start of the postseason. “I enjoy the aspect of being a competitor and being there every week because it could be a make-or-break weekend for you. I think it’s fun, you know?”

Why?

“Well, just because you either do it or you don’t,” Elliott said. “I find that fun. You go to a race, your back is against the wall and you have to perform. Either you show up and do it, or if you don’t, you get your certificate that day and you didn’t do a good enough job. And I like that.

“I like that aspect of it, that there are intense moments throughout the story. Am I a fan of all aspects of it, maybe not necessarily, but I enjoy the fun that being a competitor has given me over the last 10 weeks.”

The Cup and Xfinity Series each host elimination races this weekend.

These playoffs were chaotic. Fans have already seen it…

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. beat Brad Keselowski to win at Talladega by 0.006 seconds, the third-closest finish this season.
• Chris Buescher overtakes Shane van Gisbergen on the last lap and wins at Watkins Glen.
• Only 60% of the top 10 finishers in the five postseason races this year were playoff drivers. No playoff drivers finished in the top five at Watkins Glen.
• A quarter of the 16 playoff drivers averaged 25th or worse in each of the first-round races. Since 2017, only the 2022 Playoffs has seen a higher average of Playoff drivers finishing outside the top 25 in first-round races.
• An average of 4.5 cars finished 25th or worse in the first two races of this season’s second round – the most since 2017.

Part of this chaos is due to the car. Part of the upheaval is due to the schedule changes NASCAR has made in recent years.

The next generation car should level the competition. While Hendrick Motorsports, Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing account for nine of the 12 playoff drivers in this round, there is a balance among non-playoff teams.

Since the next-gen car debuted in 2022, non-playoff drivers have won seven of the 15 races in the first half of the playoffs. From 2017 to 2021, only one of the 25 races in the first half of the playoffs was won by a non-playoff driver.

“There is no doubt that the level of aggression has reached a whole new level since the introduction of the next-gen car, mainly because the cars are quite tough and the field is tighter than ever, so there is less give and take” Joey Logano, who is the first driver below the limit line, said last month. “Because of that, passes are harder to make, so it just ends up being a little more intense.”

William Byron is the only driver to have secured a place in the next round ahead of Sunday’s elimination race.

The schedule has also changed a lot for the participants. Richmond’s removal from the playoff schedule in 2022 proved significant for the teams contending for the title. Playoff teams secured 92.5% of the top 10 spots in the 2018-2021 playoff races at Richmond. All 10 places there went to playoff drivers in 2018 and 2020.

By comparison, only two playoff drivers finished in the top 10 at Watkins Glen last month.

In the second round this year, six of the top 10 players in Kansas were playoff contenders – the fewest in the next-gen era – and four top 10 players in Talladega were playoff contenders.

“I think the Round of 16 is tough, the Round of 16 is tough,” Byron said.

2. More chaos at Charlotte Roval

The Roval’s redesign could continue this trend of chaos in the playoffs.

NASCAR redesigned Turns 6 and 7 on the infield course so that Turn 7 is a hairpin that takes the cars to the oval portion of the track.

“This new Curve 7 will definitely be slow enough. If you do a good job of staying close to someone in Turn 6, I think it’s slow enough to push someone out of the way without completely destroying them.” Day,” Tyler Reddick said.

Map of the Charlotte Roval showing the new sections (turns 6 and 7) and the updated front chicane (turns 15-16-17).

NASCAR has also tightened the front chicane (Turns 15-16-17), slowing this corner and giving others a chance to catch a car in front and make contact.

“They’ll probably get the action that they wanted and the fans probably want,” said AJ Allmendinger, who won the Cup race there last year and has won all four Xfinity starts there.

“To me it opens up a lot to dive bombing and just the stupid things we do. … It will definitely be a new challenge compared to what we have faced in the past.”

With his two wins, Chase Elliott is the only driver to win multiple Cup races at the Roval. He says the changes change the track dramatically.

“Honestly, I look at it like it’s a new race track,” he said.

Chase Briscoe said of the changes to the Roval: “I definitely think it will perform a lot better in the race. It will create more passing zones, it will also create more chaos, which I think is always exciting from a fan’s perspective.”

3. This is how it works

After posting two top-10 finishes in the first round, Austin Cindric didn’t have much luck in the second round and is among the drivers facing playoff elimination at the Charlotte Roval on Sunday.

“Two pretty tragic races to start the round of 12 here,” said Cindric, who is 29 points below the cutline. “We have to come here with the mindset of winning the race, which makes things easier in many ways. It certainly simplifies strategy thoughts and race preparation thoughts. It’s not the situation you want to be in, but it’s definitely something we’re willing to strive for and fight for.”

Cindric spun after making contact with Kyle Busch at Kansas and finished 34th.

Cindric was leading five laps before the scheduled finish at Talladega last week when contact from behind spun him and caused a crash that collected more than 20 cars. Cindric finished 32nd.

So how do you get past this result when you’re so close to progressing with a win?

“I think you just have to get over it,” Cindric said. “It’s one of those things where it was a lot more obvious, that doesn’t mean a win was in hand, but a really good result and really good points seemed to be in our hands and that definitely changes the outlook for this one Weekend and the results for us.” Season. This obviously hurts.

“Kansas was a lot more my fault, I can deal with that, how I can deal with those issues and be better on my pitch, but the missed opportunity there is definitely a little harder to deal with, but that’s kind of part of it.”

“If I was right every time I said it was like that or that she was behaving like that in the last 72 hours, I would probably be over the line right now. That’s how it works.”

4. Xfinity Elimination Race

Saturday’s Xfinity race is intriguing because it’s all about who’s below the cutline. Four drivers are eliminated.

The drivers below the cutline are Justin Allgaier (-7 points), Shane van Gisbergen (-10), Sam Mayer (-13) and Parker Kligerman (-16).

Allgaier entered the playoffs as number 1 after a regular season in which he won two races and 14 stages.

Van Gisbergen won three races in the regular season – all on road courses.

Mayer is below the cutline after his car was disqualified for poor inspection following last weekend’s race at Talladega. He won the Xfinity race at the Roval last year.

Sam Mayer remains below the cutline ahead of Saturday’s elimination race at the Charlotte Roval.

Kligerman achieved two of his four top-five finishes on road courses this season.

Sammy Smith and Chandler Smith are the only riders to have secured a place in the next round, leaving ten riders still to fight for the final six transfer spots in Saturday’s race.

5. Numbers you should know

1 – The driver is qualified for the next round of the cup playoffs. This is William Byron.

4 – Different winners in road course events this year: William Byron (Circuit of the Americas), Kyle Larson (Sonoma), Alex Bowman (Chicago) and Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen).

6.40 – Average finish at Alex Bowman’s Roval, the best for any rider who has competed on the track at least four times.

9 – Different consecutive winners this season: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Talladega), Ross Chastain (Kansas), Kyle Larson (Bristol), Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen), Joey Logano (Atlanta), Chase Briscoe (Darlington), Harrison Burton (Daytona), Tyler Reddick (Michigan) and Austin Dillon (Richmond).

18 – Different winners this season, which is the second most ever in 31 races.