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Forget the average voter. This election is now about the marginal voters.
Massachusetts

Forget the average voter. This election is now about the marginal voters.

Political strategists sometimes pause to remind their party colleagues that the average voter is a middle-class suburbanite in her 50s. But in a highly polarized country where voter turnout in recent elections has risen to a century high, it is the increasingly rare fringe voters who may be most important to the election campaign.

David Plouffe, the Harris campaign consultant, recently estimated on Pod Save America that the pool of “true” undecided voters was at 4%, with a slightly larger universe of “soft” supporters for each candidate. While the campaigns have fairly broad messages on issues like immigration, the economy and abortion that they are likely to convey to a wide audience, they have also gone to great lengths to reach increasingly smaller groups of voters, which in American parlance may be a rounding error The company is a big deal, but their indecision makes them worth their time.

The Trump campaign in particular is obsessed with so-called “low-propensity voters,” as well as voters who distrust traditional politics and are more inclined to lean toward a third party. They spent a lot of time and energy promoting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in advance of his endorsement and then in promoting to his wellness-conscious voters the “Make America Healthy Again” message that belied most of Donald Trump’s actual environmental record. Previously, Trump had spoken to the Libertarian Party, which is barely represented in polls this cycle, in hopes of consolidating the votes of anti-government outsiders. He is also aggressively trying to win over young men of all races, a historically unreliable cohort of voters, by appearing in the “manosphere” on podcasts and YouTube shows. To counter this appeal, Harris is reportedly negotiating to appear on Joe Rogan’s podcast, the undisputed king of the format.

Speaking of those men, former President Barack Obama was recently pilloried by some of his fellow Democrats for urging black men to question whether sexism could explain their reluctance to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. But Obama isn’t out there trying to reach the median black voter, he’s speaking to a segment of the electorate that data, focus groups and anecdotal evidence show Democrats are on the fence about. Defending traditional gender roles has been a major theme in Republican ads and speeches, and in our own coverage of pro-Trump rallies aimed at black men, even as Biden was still running, some quotes suggesting a more feminine gender appeared and a more LGBTQ inclusive society. That doesn’t mean Obama’s comments were appropriate or effective, just that it’s easier to understand why he did so with a marginal electorate in mind.

And if you Really To get into the niche vote, Harris’ own “opportunity agenda” for black men, which she unveiled Monday, included cryptocurrency protection as a plank. The campaign cited data suggesting that 20% of Black Americans owned digital assets at one point. That’s good enough for a bullet point in a policy introduction.

As for another key group, Harris has made winning over moderate Republicans a top priority in the closing stages, relying heavily on support from former Trump supporters and promising a Republican Cabinet member and a bipartisan team of advisers. This has been met with some resistance from critics on the left, who argue that figures like the Cheneys are unpopular overall and that the number of controversial Republicans or Republican-leaning independents left at this point in the Trump era is vanishingly small. But in this environment, little things can matter: Democrats are clearly seeing some of the same polling data as others, showing, for example, a small portion of winnable Nikki Haley voters. In Arizona, where Harris is running ads featuring the Republican mayor of Mesa, Democrats have won several close races since 2018 by embracing John McCain’s legacy and accusing their opponents of abandoning it.

Both campaigns spent more time engaging content creators outside of traditional media than previous campaigns. In addition to Trump’s various appearances with Theo Von, Logan Paul and Elon Musk, Harris gave lengthy interviews on the podcasts “Call Her Daddy” and “All The Smoke.” That would definitely be smart politics – that’s what voters are these days – but it also reflects the importance of finding potential supporters who might be put off voting. In the race to persuade and persuade the last maybe-voter who has never watched a minute of 60 Minutes, it makes sense for campaigns to actively prioritize hosts whose audiences are less politically inclined.

The “All The Smoke” episode with Harris, for example, included substantive discussions about racial justice, helping at-risk youth and drug policy. But there was another telling moment: At one point, the moderators asked her to explain to basketball-minded listeners who might not be into politics how a bill becomes a law. In an election as close as this one, these voters could be as crucial as any other.

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