The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a low pressure area over the Caribbean that it says is likely to develop into a tropical depression. If it develops into a tropical storm, it could be the next named storm in the basin and would be named Rafael.

There is an 80 percent chance that the low pressure area over the southwest Caribbean Sea will develop into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance that it will develop in the next seven days, the NHC in Miami said in its updated tropical weather outlook on Sunday.

If the system turns into a tropical depression with winds below 39 mph, it could be upgraded to a tropical storm if it becomes more “organized” and develops winds between 39 mph and 73 mph, according to the classification NASA definitions.

There are only four hurricanes on record that made landfall in the United States in November, the most recent being in 2022 when Nicole hit Florida. Before that, Kate came ashore in November 1985 and Yankee landed in November 1935, both in Florida. In November 1861 the expedition landed in North Carolina.

Alex DesRosiers, who is part of Colorado State University’s tropical weather and climate research team, recounted Newsweek: “Hurricanes do occur in November, but they are far less common than in peak season months.”

“In a historic record spanning more than 150 years, there were about seven times more hurricanes in the peak season month of September than in November,” he said.

“Given the rarity of these events, it will always be surprising if, when, another one comes along,” DesRosiers said, adding: “Windows of hurricane-friendly conditions still open in November, but that is much less common. “You are in peak hurricane season.”

The NHC said tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued later Sunday.

Formation occurs as the system moves north and northwest across the central and western Caribbean.

Regardless of how far the system has developed, heavy rains are possible “over parts of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba,” forecasters said.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey this system later Sunday.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect the system to become a tropical storm and said it could hit the U.S. depending on its path.

AccuWeather’s senior on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “If this jet stream tilt advances far enough east, it will tend to trap the tropical structure and potentially drag it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into southern Florida .”

“But if the dip of the jet stream lags westward, the tropical structure could advance into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas to the west such as Louisiana or Texas. There is also the possibility that it continues due west and decreases over southern Mexico.”

If the system develops further into a hurricane, it would be surprising for meteorologists, as hurricanes are extremely rare in November – even though the Atlantic hurricane season, which includes systems that form in the Caribbean, does not officially start until November 30th ends.

The NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for Storm Patty, also located in the Atlantic hurricane basin and expected to move near the southeastern Azores.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores over the next few hours, along with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall and life-threatening surf conditions.