As much of the western Florida Peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, recovers from the massive storm surge damage associated with Hurricane Helene, the next hurricane threat to the United States is also focused on Florida. Here’s what we currently know about the next storm.

As of this writing Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean (Kirk and Leslie) and a system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Kirk is a strong, severe hurricane, but neither it nor Leslie will threaten the United States. The system in the Gulf of Mexico, however, is a different story. The NHC’s morning discussion said: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with an extended low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are beginning to become more organized.” There is a likelihood of the storm developing further over the next two days 70%, 90% within the next five days. My experience tells me we could have a tropical depression or named storm (Milton) ahead today or Sunday.

When assessing these threats, we use several models, but I will focus on the American GFS and the European model, respectively. Both agree the storm could be heading toward the western Florida peninsula and possibly make landfall by midweek. NHC warned: “By early next week, the system is expected to move more rapidly east or northeast across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, where further strengthening is likely.”

At this point I will not commit myself to the results of individual model solutions. However, several findings suggest that the storm could strengthen into a potentially very strong hurricane. Weather expert Michael Ventrice makes this point in the post above, but I warn you that this is just one of the possible outcomes shown. His larger point is one that also concerns me. When a storm like this enters what is likely to be a climatically charged, unusually warm Gulf of Mexico, I am always on high alert. If you are in Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers or anywhere along the Florida Peninsula or the Keys, I advise you to pay close attention to this storm. The Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico is likely to be affected in the short term.

There are several things that concern me about this potential storm. Regardless of the name (and it probably will get one), there will be significant amounts of precipitation in Florida. Like Helene, it appears that rainfall could inundate Florida long before the possible tropical storm or hurricane. This is a recipe for flooding. Much of Florida is already recovering from Helene, so this is the last thing they need. Additionally, both models suggest landfall in a region from Tampa Bay to Fort Myers. There is still uncertainty, but the range of possibilities is starting to narrow as we are within the five-day window. With current route forecasts, even places like Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Miami and the Bahamas should pay attention.

Not surprisingly, the misinformation machine is in full swing following Hurricane Helene. It is not uncommon for hurricanes to occur in September or October. In fact, the peak of the Atlantic season is in September. The 2024 season was always expected to be quite active due to unusually warm sea surface temperatures, La Nina and other factors. That’s it, that’s the explanation.