CINCINNATI – The start of the season didn’t go as planned or hoped. They’ve seemingly lived with their backs against the wall every week and had already heard the phrase “They have to win” from their quarterback at multiple press conferences before the calendar turned to November.

However, looking ahead to January, the Bengals have an interesting, if dismal, second half ahead of them while sitting just outside the AFC playoffs at 4-5.

They have an offense that can outscore anyone, a quarterback that is playing at the elite level expected, and still one of the best receiver combinations in the league. They also have a defense that can be the worst in the league on any given Sunday, young players in prominent roles who aren’t making enough progress, and an injured reserve list that’s slowly filling up with key players.

All of this adds up to a two-month run where you can see Joe Burrow lead them back into the playoffs and sneak in as a team that none of the division winners want to see in the first round, or potentially climb back into the top 10 of the playoffs For the first time since Ja’Marr Chase was selected in 2021.

Here are my predictions.

Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson go 1-2 for MVP

The season may not have started the way the Bengals had hoped, but that won’t stop voters from recognizing Burrow’s eye-popping numbers down the stretch. He’s already at the top of the QBR league and is on pace to put up numbers rarely seen in NFL history.

His pace is 4,239 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes, seven interceptions and completing 70 percent of his passes. The only quarterback in history to meet all of these criteria was Aaron Rodgers during his MVP season in 2020.

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An angry Joe Burrow takes the wheel to get the Bengals’ season back on track amid the chaos

Lamar Jackson would follow that pace and surpass it if the completion rate dropped to 68.3 percent. There is no argument that Jackson would be the league’s MVP if the award were presented today. That makes the Bengals-Ravens game on Thursday night all the more entertaining.

If Cincinnati can remain relevant alongside Burrows through the end of the season, voters would have to include him, even if Jackson is currently far from the field. Keeping up with that pace will be the hard part, with terrible defenses like the Commanders, Panthers and Ravens already checked off the schedule. The second half features four games against teams ranked in the league’s top three in points allowed per drive: Steelers (twice), Chargers and Broncos.

Joe Burrow will likely need to maintain his elite level if the Bengals have any hope of making the playoffs. (Sam Greene/Imagn Images)

Burrow continued to play better later in the season, even with increased difficulty. Almost all of his key statistics show the highest numbers in December/January.

He should have the opportunity to maintain or exceed his pace as long as Chase and Tee Higgins can stay healthy.

The key to any MVP conversation will be the Bengals’ rise to relevance. Finding a way to get back into the AFC North race or pick up big wins down the road will be beneficial for him, as will multiple opportunities to make an impression on voters with at least four more primetime games.

The Bengals defense will rank in the top half over the last eight games

Coordinator Lou Anarumo and his defense were heavily maligned in the first half of the season, including several historically poor performances. They have a significant rebuilding project ahead of them in the offseason. But the second half of the season will be filled with opponents more similar to the Browns, Raiders, Panthers and Giants, teams that defenses helped beat.

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The Bengals’ dismal defensive decline and three plays highlight the problems

After Thursday, ranking in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA, there are no teams left on the schedule. The Bengals’ defense doesn’t need to improve dramatically to move up in the rankings.

Consider the defensive splits between teams that rank in the top half of offensive DVOA compared to the bottom half:

Statistics: Vs. Top/Vs. Below
Points/game: 35.5 / 17.0
Points/trip: 3.58 / 1.37
Defense Success %: 44.4% / 54.9%
Opp ANY/A: 9.18 / 4.17
Balance sheet: 0-4 / 4-1

If they win seven games that match the numbers on the right side of the standings, that would qualify for a defense that ranks in the top five of the league, let alone just the top half. Nobody expects such sustainability, but the number of offensive opponents offers the opportunity to put up solid numbers.

The Bengals will advance to the postseason if they beat the Chargers and Broncos

Considering what we know about the Bengals’ level of play this year and their future schedule, one can narrow their playoff picture down to two critical, high-leverage games.

They can be counted on to beat the Titans, Browns and Cowboys, all of whom have struggled with poor quarterback play.

Fighting back to win the AFC North is next to impossible. So they will try to move up to the sixth or seventh wild card, knowing that this will require ten – possibly even nine – wins.

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The NFL sends the Bengals-Chargers to “Sunday Night Football” in Week 11.

The Colts, Broncos and Chargers are in the mix with Cincinnati. The Bengals travel to Los Angeles on November 17th and host Denver on the last weekend in December. There’s a chance the Steelers can get back on the field with a brutal game plan in the second half, and the Bengals will have to at least prevail against them, but if they win those tiebreakers against Denver and Los Angeles, there’s a big chance of being decisive Vote in a game to cast this seed.

Every game is important, but these two should be surrounded by a giant red circle.

Tee Higgins says an emotional farewell before the final game

The end is coming for Higgins in Cincinnati, and everyone involved knows it. He collects the $21.8 million franchise tag knowing he will enter free agency in March and move on to his next team.

He’s experienced the harsh realities of business in the NFL – and particularly with the Bengals – but that doesn’t mean it will harden him when Cincinnati’s final game comes in January.

Tee Higgins has 29 receptions for 341 yards and three touchdowns in five games this season. (Ken Blaze/Imagn Images)

Higgins didn’t shy away from how surprised he was by the connection he’s developed with the city. The loud “Teee!” that the crowd comes after every catch shows that the appreciation goes both ways. Whether Higgins should be paid has been a hot topic in Cincinnati for years, but that doesn’t change how popular he is with this fan base. Seeing him go, just like Jessie Bates did two years ago, will be a difficult proposition. It’ll be tough at first for Higgins, who I expect will take some heat with his comments on the way out.

The Bengals are adding a running back at the trade deadline

How about a prediction that you don’t have to wait long to see if it comes true?

While the team continues to shop around and carefully look for potential deadline deals on the defensive line and at corner, none of them have reached a serious level, largely due to the young players they favor as options to fill the void. Defensively, that means Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai behind starters Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard and fifth-round pick Josh Newton behind Mike Hilton, DJ Turner and Cam Taylor-Britt.

However, what happened at running back late last week changed the urgency of finding a partner. Zack Moss was sidelined with a neck injury that appears to be serious, although a final decision on how long he will be out is still pending. Either way, the idea of ​​riding Chase Brown for 20-plus runs per game, as the Bengals did against the Raiders, would be risky at best and recklessly untenable at worst.

Chase Brown is the clear No. 1 running back for the Bengals with Zack Moss out. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)

Trayveon Williams isn’t a backup player they’d be comfortable taking over for some of the carries, leaving practice squad coach Kendall Milton as their only alternative.

So the Bengals head to the trade market, where they’ve almost never been able to get a deal done. Only now do they have urgent motivation.

Notable running back names churning up the rumor mill include Chicago’s Khalil Herbert, Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne and Carolina’s Miles Sanders.

Brown endured a heavy workload during his time at Illinois and the Bengals have confidence he can handle it again, but they would prefer another back to lean on and serve as a backup for Moss’ season .

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(Top photo: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)