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Fed cuts rates again as Trump victory clouds future
Albany

Fed cuts rates again as Trump victory clouds future

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second straight day on Thursday in a bid to keep the economy afloat by reducing the high borrowing costs it created to combat inflation. But going forward, Fed policymakers will have to contend with a major new unknown: a second term for Trump as president.

The Fed’s key interest rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point was expected. This follows a half percentage point cut in September when the central bank eased monetary policy after keeping interest rates at a two-decade high to curb inflation.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to grow at a solid pace,” the Fed said in a brief statement announcing the rate cut. “Since the beginning of the year, labor market conditions have generally eased and the unemployment rate has increased but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the (Fed) Committee’s 2 percent target but remains somewhat elevated.”

After inflation fell sharply from its 2022 highs, officials had announced a rate cut on Thursday and another in December, followed by several more next year. The Fed eventually wants to reach a point where interest rates neither stimulate nor constrain the economy, as they currently do.

But with Trump’s victory, the Fed’s future path appears much more uncertain.

Economists see risks on two fronts: If Trump follows through on his campaign promises to cut taxes and impose blanket tariffs on foreign goods, he could spur inflation again and force the Fed to scale back its plans to cut interest rates.

Second, there is a risk of undue political influence by Trump, which could undermine the Fed’s independence. During Trump’s first term, he frequently addressed the Fed and current Chairman Jerome H. Powell, whom Trump appointed, calling for lower interest rates. The Fed and the financial markets view the independence of the central bank as an inviolable prerequisite for sound economic policy.

Currently, many analysts still expect the Fed to cut its key interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in December, but since Trump’s stunning victory, the likelihood has increased that Fed officials will pause and wait next month or early next year to see what a second Trump administration could mean for fiscal policy and the economy.

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