close
close

Yiamastaverna

Trusted News & Timely Insights

Fantasy Football: RB preview for the 2024 draft
Colorado

Fantasy Football: RB preview for the 2024 draft

Let’s face it: Running back is still the most important position in fantasy football. Of course, it offers a lot of volatility – and a lot of injury risk. But if you find the right answers to your running back position – in the draft, on the wire, or on the transfer market – you’re likely king.

That doesn’t mean our drafts have to start with a heavy running back push like previous generations of drafters did. Bell cows are a dying breed in the NFL, with most teams relying on timeshares and platoons. But I actually find the staggering of running back production oddly reassuring; it means we can accept fewer points from viable RB2 and RB3 candidates, and there seem to be more potential players for those roles.

While every draft plan needs to be sketched out in pencil so managers can keep an open mind and be ready to change as current opportunities arise, you’ll probably want to focus on a running back’s formation before your draft even begins. Again, you’re not locked into this plan forever; maybe you’ll call out a nice audible as your live draft progresses. But there are three major running back builds to choose from, and most fantasy managers seem to favor one of them.

— The plan of the old school is known as Robust RBwhere you select multiple backs with early draft capital.

— The trendy Pivot from Robust RB is Zero RBwhere you ignore the position with early picks and try to cover later with upside picks. The volatility of the position becomes your friend.

— The compromise between Robust RB and Zero RB is the Held RB (or Anchor RB) approach where you get a stable back to stabilize the room and then put the hunt on hold for a few rounds.

Note that smart fantasy managers are likely to select multiple high-odds lottery tickets in the second half of the draft in all three strategies. It has always bothered me when some people claim that this concept only applies to zero RBs. Good managers understand and embrace this key idea no matter how their draft started.

This embedded content is not available in your region.

I prefer the hero or anchor RB approach most years, including in 2024. Maybe it’s because I like compromise. Maybe it’s because I prefer to hit a 3-wood off the tee, not a driver. My preference may not be your preference, of course. And as I’ve always said, any strategy can work if you pick the right players.

I know that the editors want a selection that I ask you to make in your draft, but I don’t approach it quite that way. It all depends, it’s always relative. And for managers in multiple leagues, I would advise a certain balance in their portfolio. No matter how good a player is, I don’t want him on all my teams. My risk profile sees it differently.

Still, I like the way Isiah Pacheco’s career is evolving.

He increased his role as a pass receiver and his touchdown rate in the second half of 2023, scoring seven times (and catching 31 passes) in his final eight games, including the playoffs. He’s tied to a high-caliber offense, the league’s best playmaker, and the league’s best quarterback. You get lift (a boutique way of saying “floor”) here, and you also have the benefit of an emerging talent entering his third season. Pacheco is a steal if he slides into the third round, and he’s worth considering in Round 2.

Some other notable targets that fit well with a Hero RB build:

  • I’ll make sure to include Bijan Robinson in some of my lineups now that the Falcons have a good quarterback and a new play-caller.

  • If Gus Edwards could score 13 goals in Baltimore, maybe Derrick Henry has a shot at 16-20. I know this isn’t an isolated case, but sometimes the wisdom of the crowd is the right whisper to listen to.

  • Jonathan Taylor would spread his wings in the second half of 2023 and I would follow head coach Shane Steichen into a burning building.

  • If we ignore the quarterback, the Jets may have the best roster in the NFL, and while football obviously doesn’t work that way, all they need is an average season with Aaron Rodgers and this team will likely make the playoffs. Working behind a strong offensive line, Breece Hall is set up for success.

I at least expect Zack Moss to open the year as a co-starter with Chase Brown, and it’s possible Moss simply moves Brown out of the way. Moss is considered the better goal-line option, and some modern efficiency metrics don’t give Brown credit as a runner. The early summer excitement catapulted Brown to many underdog sides, and Moss missed the first preseason game due to a brief illness, which added to Brown’s momentum. But Moss was back with the starters on Monday; take advantage of the market’s slight overcorrection.

Some other value backs I like:

  • Devin Singletary has a positive history with Brian Daboll, and the depth behind him could be thin, especially if Tyrone Tracy’s injury from Tuesday is serious. Singletary was the RB9 after taking over Houston’s starting position midway through last year.

  • Ezekiel Elliott probably won’t beat Rico Dowdle in the efficiency stats, but Zeke’s short-yardage work over the past few years is still reliable, even if his spectacular plays have disappeared. Elliott is also a capable pass blocker, which protects his third-down work. He’s boring at this stage of his career, but we’ll take the boring downgrade.

  • Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford are essentially placeholders for more talented teammates, but what if Jonathon Brooks and Nick Chubb need more time than expected to return? I love picks that allow me to get off to a strong start in the first quarter of a fantasy season, and Hubbard and Ford fit that need.

Opinions on Alvin Kamara vary; my esteemed colleague Andy Behrens published some pro-Kamara views this summer, and Andy is one of the sharpest players around. But this is a game about respectful disagreement, and I’ll offer some of those.

Kamara enters the season at 29, a position that often makes us nervous. His fantasy standing last year was based largely on his volume – 75 catches, the second-most at the position – and lack of efficiency. Kamara’s 6.2 yards per catch was his career low and a 2.4-yard drop from the previous season. He also dropped to 3.9 yards per carry and did not have a single run over 20 yards. The explosiveness was not there, and when a player reaches the final nine of his career, you shouldn’t bet on the trend reversing.

All of that adds up to 5.4 yards per touch, Kamara’s third straight drop in that column. That’s a long way from the 8.3 YPT we saw in his rookie year. And the Saints aren’t making an effort to force easy touchdowns for Kamara – he’s only scored a touchdown 10 times in his last 28 games. Given his age and declining efficiency, Kamara is an easy sell for me come 2024.

Other backs I’m ignoring at ADP:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs is a striking player, but he will always share with David Montgomery and Monty has a bit more chance on the goal line. Gibbs has also picked up a few knocks this summer, including a thigh injury on Tuesday.

  • It’s no fun watching a player’s career slowly go downhill, but Austin Ekeler’s poor season last year left its mark. Now he’s tied to an offense where Brian Robinson Jr. will be the early attacker and rookie QB Jayden Daniels could easily be the team’s best runner.

  • 1. Christian McCaffrey

  • 2. Breeze Hall

  • 3. Bijan Robinson

  • 4. Jonathan Taylor

  • 5. Derrick Henry

  • 6. Saquon Barkley

  • 7. Kyren Williams

  • 8. Isiah Pacheco

  • 9. Travis Etienne Jr.

  • 10. Jahmyr Gibbs

  • 11. Josh Jacobs

  • 12. Joe Mixon

  • 13. James Cook

  • 14. Rachaad White

  • 15. De’Von Achane

  • 16. Kenneth Walker III

  • 17. Aaron Jones

  • 18. David Montgomery

  • 19. Alvin Kamara

  • 20. James Conner

  • 21. Rhamondre Stevenson

  • 22. Raheem Mostert

  • 23. Najee Harris

  • 24. Zamir White

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *