Week 1 has traditionally been one of the toughest weeks in the ESPN Eliminator Challenge, especially recently. Over the past two seasons, teams favored by at least four points in Week 1 have been just 6-7-1, leading to many early eliminations.

Last season, the two most doubtful picks from Week 1 survived (Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders), while the next two most popular picks pulled off an upset. Two years ago, the most doubtful pick won (Ravens), but the next three most popular picks either lost (Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans) or were tied (Indianapolis Colts). Overall, the second most popular pick from the Week 1 Eliminator Challenge has lost in three of the last four seasons.

This season is shaping up similarly to previous years, with a clear pick on paper. The Cincinnati Bengals are the only team favored by more than a touchdown on ESPN BET and have the best odds to win this week according to ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay’s model. Unsurprisingly, they’re also the most popular pick, with 30% of participants choosing them by Tuesday night. They’re also our top pick for Week 1, as we’ll be sitting on the chalk.

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Click here to download Mike Clay’s weekly updated Eliminator Cheat Sheet. Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Top selection

1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots)
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Sunday 1pm ET

It’s the clear choice for good reason. While underdogs tend to overperform in Week 1, the biggest favorites tend to get the job done. Teams favored by more than a touchdown in Week 1 have a record of 26-4 (.867) over the past 15 seasons, while teams favored by between 4 and 7 points have a record of 61-25-1 (.707). For those who prefer to go against the grain, there are some reasons to go in a different direction. After this week, they’ll be at least 79% favorites in two of their next five games, so the Bengals have plenty of value going forward.

On paper, however, these weeks also offer several other strong options. The Bengals are by far the biggest favorites in Week 17, so it could be painful to crush them now, but it’s too early to worry about what will happen in Week 16. The Patriots are a strong candidate for the title of worst team in the NFL, and losing them on the road will be a staple in this column for months to come.

• ESPN BET Line: Bengals -8.5 (-425 moneyline)

• ESPN analysis: Bengals: 82% chance of winning (out of 13.2)

• Eliminator Challenge: 30% selected this week

2. Buffalo Bills (vs Arizona Cardinals)
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Sunday 1pm ET

The Bills are a strong second choice this week and the second-biggest favorite according to oddsmaker Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. One advantage to betting on the Bills is that they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL, behind only the Patriots.

Although the Bills are a top-five team to start the season according to ESPN Analytics, after this week they only have three games left where they are considered at least 70% favorites. Buffalo was also a strong team in Week 1 under Sean McDermott, winning and covering the spread each of the last four seasons.

• ESPN BET Line: Bills -6 (-270 Moneyline)

• ESPN analysis: Bills: 77% chance of winning (9.5%)

• Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected this week

3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)
Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Seahawks are another strong Bengals pick this week. This is their second-biggest favorite this season, according to Mike Clay, and their biggest favorite all season, according to ESPN Analytics. First-round quarterbacks since 2021 have a 0-9 record in their first career starts, and Seattle is a notoriously difficult road spot for Bo Nix early in his career. The Seahawks’ other advantage is that they are currently being picked by only 5% of Eliminator Challenge participants. If that number stays low, the Seahawks become the most interesting contrarian pick in Week 1, despite being the third-biggest betting favorite.

• ESPN BET Line: Seahawks -6 (-250 Moneyline)

• ESPN analysis: Seahawks: 71% chance of winning (at 7.6)

• Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected this week

Other factors to consider