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Donald Trump gets bad news from two early voting trends in Pennsylvania
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Donald Trump gets bad news from two early voting trends in Pennsylvania

Early voting data from Pennsylvania has revealed two potentially worrisome trends for Donald Trump’s hopes of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the crucial battleground state, according to an analysis.

The former president faces some potential warning signs as Pennsylvania data shows more women than men voted early in the 2024 election and registered Democrats over 65 have also outvoted Republicans in the same age group so far, Politico reported this week.

It’s unclear who these Pennsylvanians voted for, but the state’s seniors have generally been a reliably Republican constituency and the Harris campaign has made reaching out to women through issues like abortion a priority. Republicans tend to cast their votes on Election Day rather than by mail or early voting.

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three battleground states of Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring surprise results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 electoral votes would be to win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Donald Trump in Pennsylvania
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on October 29, 2024 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Early voting data in the key swing state showed two potentially worrisome trends for Trump.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans, Politico reported Thursday. Those over 65 have cast almost half of the early ballots so far.

Traditionally, those over 65 take part in elections more often than any other age group.

Nationally, in both the 2020 and 2016 elections, Trump won more support among those 65 and older. The former president received around 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in the 2020 election, but still lost the state to Joe Biden.

Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of data firm TargetSmart, said he was surprised by what he called a “silver surge” in early voting from senior Democrats.

“Our expectation going into early voting was that Republicans in general would be significantly more represented than they were in 2020,” Bonier told Politico. “There is no longer a pandemic, Democrats have been more aware of Covid… and Republicans have pushed for early voting.”

The early voting numbers, which suggest Harris is in the lead among those over 65, are also supported by recent polls.

A Fox News poll conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,310 registered voters in Pennsylvania showed Harris with a five-point lead over Trump among those 65 and older (51 percent to 46). The error rate was plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.

A CNN/SRSS poll of 819 likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 28 showed Harris with a two-point lead over Trump among those 65 and older (49 percent to 47).

Pennsylvania Trump campaign spokesman Kush Desai told Politico: “Americans of all ages and backgrounds are uniting behind President Trump’s agenda to make America safe, strong, prosperous and great again, and that reality is reflected in record numbers Republican voter registrations and turnout across battleground states, including Pennsylvania.”

Politico also reported Tuesday that women are outperforming men in early voting, another possible warning sign for Trump.

Harris, who has made protecting abortion and reproductive rights one of her key campaign promises, will be looking for strong female support to help her beat Trump in November.

According to Politico’s analysis, using data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project, there is a gap of at least 10 points in favor of women in early voting in Pennsylvania

Women registered as Democrats in Pennsylvania also make up nearly a third of early votes among people who did not vote in the 2020 election.

The NBC News tracker of early voting results suggested there is a larger gender gap in Pennsylvania, with women making up 56 percent of early voters, compared to about 43 percent for men.

“The gender gap is a major cause for hope among Democrats and concern for Republicans, especially with many states having abortion rights changes on their ballots in the 2024 elections,” said Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University Newsweek on Thursday.

Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who compiles early voting data for the United States Election Project, said a surge in female voters in this year’s election may not necessarily be beneficial for Harris.

“We are seeing an increase in voter turnout from Republicans of all stripes, regardless of gender – men and women. It’s just that women are still ahead and keeping up,” McDonald told Politico.

According to a Pew Research analysis, Trump won a slightly larger share of women’s votes in 2020 than in 2016 (44 percent of 39).

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