BETHLEHEM, Pa. — A new poll in the Lehigh Valley congressional district showed U.S. Rep. Susan Wild with a 6-point lead over her Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie, but the results are within the poll’s margin of error.

According to the new Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion/Morning Call poll, Wild, a three-term Democrat, leads Mackenzie, a 12-term state representative, 51% to 45%.

459 likely voters were surveyed from the district, which includes Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties and part of Monroe County.

The survey has a margin of error of 6 points and a confidence level of 95%.

The poll found that voters had a positive opinion of both candidates, a relative rarity in modern politics. A national poll by the institute last month found that voters had negative views of President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick.

47 percent of voters have a positive opinion of Wild, compared to 36 percent who had a negative opinion.

Familiarity and economics

Mackenzie was somewhat of an unknown to voters – 20% of respondents said they had never heard of him, compared to 3% who had never heard of Wild.

But 30% of respondents viewed it positively, compared to 25% who viewed it negatively.

Wild had a double-digit lead among women (56% to 42%), among voters ages 35 to 50 (54% to 39%), among people of color (72% to 24%) and among voters with a four-year degree ( 62%). to 37%) and people who did not identify as Catholic or Protestant (61% to 34%).

The only demographics where Mackenzie led by more than the margin of error were voters without a four-year degree (51% to 43%) and Catholics (54% to 43%).

According to the poll, the economy was by far the biggest concern among local voters. More people listed this as a top priority (29%) than the next three most common answers combined.

These were immigration (12%), abortion and reproductive rights (7%) and democratic norms (7%).

Closely divided district

The district has been bombarded with political ads, mailings and VIPs for months. PA-7 is one of about two dozen state House seats still pending, and both parties have vowed to invest heavily in the district to win it.

The U.S. House of Representatives has been closely divided in recent years, and the winner of the district could determine which party sets the legislative agenda in the House next year.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, are each scheduled to appear in the Lehigh Valley to bolster their party’s candidate ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

The same poll of likely voters in the 7th Congressional District showed Harris narrowly leading former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, 50% to 47% – also within the margin of error.

A national poll by Muhlenberg last month showed the two presidential candidates tied 48% to 48%.

This could be welcome news for Harris. The Lehigh Valley and Northampton County in particular have earned a reputation as a model region. Northampton County has supported the winning candidate in 22 of the last 25 presidential elections.

The poll also showed U.S. Sen. Bob Casey leading his Republican challenger Dave McCormick by a margin of 51% to 45% in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat – still within the margin of error.

This is roughly in line with the national poll, which had Casey ahead of McCormick 48% to 43%.