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Dave Wasserman tells us his election prediction. Can you decipher it?
Tennessee

Dave Wasserman tells us his election prediction. Can you decipher it?

Let’s hope Dave Wasserman already sleeping tonight. As a senior editor and election analyst at the Cook Political Report — an independent, nonpartisan media outlet — and a key figure on NBC News’ decision-making team, he likes to keep things quiet on the eve of the election.

Wasserman, 40, is known on social media for his slogan “I’ve seen enough,” which he says when he’s ready to unofficially call a race. His attention to the demographic details of the country’s various districts and counties means he often identifies trends in the electorate long before anyone else. In September 2016 it was time to outline potential Donald Trump Despite losing the popular vote, he won the Electoral College just under two months before that result actually materialized.

As we prepare for this year’s Late Night, Wasserman shares Vanity Fair that he’ll be guided by utility contractors when choosing his outfit on election night, but an appearance Friday on C-SPAN was the perfect time to clarify his final prediction for Tuesday based on the color of his tie.

“It was pink tie,” he says. “I let the audience draw their own conclusions.”

Pink, as in “leaning R” on the CPR cards? Pink, as in JD VanceUndecided in the debate? Pink, like all women who vote for it Kamala Harris? Pink, so completely inconclusive?

Vanity Fair: Remember when “I’ve seen enough” became your catchphrase? It really explains how the experts use the incoming data.

Dave Wasserman: So I meant it literally – that I had seen enough to conclude that a particular candidate had won. I might have used it for first Scott Brown when he won a special election for Ted Kennedy’s open Senate seat, but I’m not entirely sure. It took on a life of its own. When people started asking me, “Have you seen enough at this or that race,” I gave into it so much that it became a catchphrase.

My goal was to break through some of the false tension of election nights. Now I can’t blame the media organizations for deliberately reporting the results on the big election nights. I’m on the decision-making team at a major network, but the reality is that most often an election result is clear based on incomplete data before every network has declared a winner. My goal was to communicate the result at a slightly earlier point in time with a high level of certainty.

What does your Election Day routine look like?

In some ways it is the most disappointing day because we have no new polls to think about. That’s why I try to get as much sleep as possible the night before Election Day. I switch off for at least a few hours a day and get on the treadmill or bike at the hotel gym. I’ve worked for the NBC News decision department on every major election night since 2008, so I spend a large portion of the day reviewing our models and reviewing our data from previous elections to make sure we’re starting out as quickly as possible react can get real data.

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