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    • Chiefs NFL Midseason Predictions: Kansas City hosts Ravens in rematch for AFC title
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    Chiefs NFL Midseason Predictions: Kansas City hosts Ravens in rematch for AFC title

    Madoc Meredith Posted on

    KANSAS CITY, Mo. – For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Kansas City Chiefs have an unblemished 8-0 record.

    The Chiefs are in the middle of the regular season and are preparing to play the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Similar to last season, the defense is the Chiefs’ best unit, holding opponents to 18.4 points per game, fourth fewest in the NFL.

    At this point last season — which ended with the Chiefs becoming the NFL’s first repeat champion in two decades — we made five predictions for the rest of the year.

    Looking back, we were correct with four predictions: The AFC Championship Game was not played at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs defense actually finished in the top five in three categories (points allowed, sacks and splash plays by dime personnel), but the offense did I’m not the league leader when it comes to giveaways, and the Chiefs had a rematch with the Miami Dolphins in the postseason. The only prediction we missed was that Travis Kelce would finish with at least 1,000 receiving yards last season.

    Here are five predictions for the remainder of the Chiefs 2024 season:

    The Chiefs will earn home-field advantage in the postseason

    The Chiefs already have a significant lead in the AFC standings. Because of their season-opening win, the Chiefs have a virtual four-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens, who could be their biggest threat in the conference. Other rivals such as the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers have suffered two losses. The Chiefs can create even more gap in the standings with wins later this season against the Bills (November 17), Houston Texans (December 21) and Steelers (December 25).

    Another way for the Chiefs to secure the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and home-field advantage in the AFC is to defeat their division rivals. After last year’s four-game postseason run, in which Aaron Schatz, FTN Network’s chief analytics officer and creator of DVOA, said the Chiefs face the toughest postseason path based on their opponents’ DVOA in the regular season Mahomes and his teammates are motivated to take a different path this year.

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    “I pride myself on being able to throw in all conditions,” Mahomes said Monday after the Chiefs’ win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. “That’s an advantage at Arrowhead. Whether it’s raining, snowing, cold or hot, I want to be the best ball thrower on the field. That’s why we want home-field advantage and the playoffs to come through Arrowhead because it’s a special place and you have to be able to play in any environment.”

    Travis Kelce won’t reach 1,000 yards

    The 35-year-old Kelce, who is in his 12th season, won’t have to carry the load for the Chiefs’ offense. The most important factor for Mahomes and coach Andy Reid is that Kelce is healthy for the playoffs.

    In the last two games, Kelce had 24 receptions for 190 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to imagine him maintaining this statistical pace in the second half of the season. If the Chiefs do indeed clinch the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoffs, Kelce could rest again in the final game or two of the regular season.

    Another reason Kelce could end up at 900 yards rather than 1,000 yards is that the odds should increase for rookie receiver Xavier Worthy and veteran receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (right hamstring) and Marquise Brown (left shoulder ) could return to the lineup.

    DeAndre Hopkins will lead the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns

    OK, that might be a knee-jerk reaction after Hopkins’ impressive start since the Chiefs acquired him from the Tennessee Titans. At the same time, however, Hopkins is the Chiefs’ surest receiver and can still win one-on-one matchups, which he did by scoring two touchdowns against the Buccaneers.

    Did you know that Worthy leads the Chiefs with just three receiving touchdowns? Hopkins should see his snaps increase and his chemistry with Mahomes grow in the second half. When the Chiefs are in the red zone, most opponents will still focus their attention on Kelce or the speedy Worthy, which should give Mahomes plenty of opportunities to find Hopkins in the end zone.

    Trent McDuffie finally gets an interception

    Strange as it may be, this might be our boldest prediction. McDuffie is one of the Chiefs’ best players, a talented cornerback who is great in coverage, can make strong tackles in the open field and has five pass breakups this season. A three-year player, McDuffie is still looking for his first career interception.

    The odds are on McDuffie’s side. At some point, an opposing quarterback will make a mistake when McDuffie is in coverage. It could be Broncos rookie Bo Nix.

    “I told him this before: He was voted All-Pro last year, and I thought that was the (highest) compliment to a DB who didn’t have an interception,” coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said in training camp. “He does a lot of things really (well), and I guarantee you he’s determined to get some picks this year.”

    The AFC title game will be an exciting rematch against the Ravens

    Let’s do that again because the possibility is too intriguing. An AFC Championship Game rematch at Arrowhead could be the best game of the 2024 NFL season.

    If the Chiefs win, they will reach the Super Bowl for the fourth time in six years. The win would also put the franchise one win away from securing an unprecedented third consecutive Lombardi Trophy.

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    If the Ravens win, they would avenge last year’s loss in Baltimore. Quarterback Lamar Jackson would lead the Ravens to the Super Bowl for the first time in his illustrious career. And the Ravens would be the team that would dethrone the Chiefs and end their two-year reign.

    Also think about this: The game could feature as many as 13 future Hall of Famers – Mahomes, Kelce, Hopkins, Jackson, defensive tackle Chris Jones, left guard Joe Thuney, kicker Harrison Butker, center Creed Humphrey, running back Derrick Henry, kicker Justin Tucker, safety Kyle Hamilton, coach Andy Reid and coach John Harbaugh.

    (Photo by Patrick Mahomes: Denny Medley / Imagn Images)

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    Madoc Meredith
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