Before the season, Oklahoma State had a win projection of 8.5 and ranked third in the Big 12 in odds.

BYU, on the other hand, had an overall win rating of 4.5 and ranked last in the Big 12 odds.

After seven weeks the script changed. The Cougars are off to a 6-0 start while the Cowboys limped to 3-3.

BYU is a 9.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma State on Friday night.

Let’s dive into the matchup and make a prediction.

Oklahoma State vs. BYU odds

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Despite Ollie Gordon being the reigning Doak Walker Award winner, Oklahoma State’s rushing offense has been terrible this season.

The Cowboys rank 131st in rushing success rate, and Gordon’s average has dropped from 6.1 yards per carry last year to 3.8 yards per carry this year. There are two problems.

First, the Cowboys’ offensive line has dramatically underperformed. Despite bringing plenty of crucial experience, the Pokes rank 100th in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking rankings.

Second, the Cowboys struggled to find any semblance of a threatening downfield passing game that allowed opponents to occupy the box without fear of being overplayed.

Quarterback Alan Bowman, playing his seventh year of college football, was struggling. During the Cowboys’ current three-game losing streak, he has completed just 50% of his passes and thrown six interceptions.

Oklahoma State is expected to play redshirt sophomore Garret Rangel or redshirt freshman Zane Flores in place of Bowman on Friday, according to Action Network college football insider Brett McMurphy.

Rangel has completed just 51% of his passes and thrown seven touchdowns and six interceptions in 12 games over three seasons. Flores has yet to appear at the collegiate level. Can we expect either one to be successful on the road against a BYU defense that ranks 13th in pass success rate allowed?

When BYU has the ball

Former JUCO quarterback Jake Retzlaff had an incredible season at BYU, throwing 14 touchdowns and five interceptions in the team’s 6-0 start.

He has led the Cougars to a top-50 passing attack in EPA/pass and yards per dropback.

Retzlaff should thrive in this game against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks below 90th in PFF’s pass rush and coverage grades.

The Cougars’ running game has lagged behind their passing game this year, but injuries to LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati were the primary cause.

Both players returned against Arizona and combined for 114 yards on 20 carries. The duo should be able to continue that success against an Oklahoma State defense that allows a staggering 6.4 yards per carry, the sixth-most in the country.

Choosing between Oklahoma State and BYU

The situational aspect of this game would make me think about Oklahoma State.

According to Action Network, head coach Mike Gundy has a 31-17 consecutive record and 26-19-3 against the team (58%) with more than 10 days to prepare.

However, supporting two inexperienced quarterbacks to succeed on the road against a strong BYU pass defense is a difficult task.

Instead, I’m going to dive into the player prop market and back Ropati to finish with 40+ rushing yards.

Betting on college football?

Ropati has dealt with terrible injury luck during his time at BYU, but he has eclipsed 40 rushing yards in all four career games in which he received at least 15 snaps, and he averages an impressive 5 over the course of his career .1 yards per carry.

As a 9.5-point favorite, the Cougars should be able to get their running game going, and I’m rooting for Ropati to find success against the Cowboys’ terrible run defense.

Best Bet: Hinckley Ropati 40+ Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.