The Yankees are on the verge of returning to the World Series for the first time since woolly mammoths and saber-toothed cats roamed the earth – er, we mean 2009 – but they need another win over the Guardians in the AL Championship Series to get there reach.

That could come as soon as Saturday, if Carlos Rodon, The sometimes enigmatic, incredibly talented pitcher is scheduled to face him in Game 5 in Cleveland Tanner Bibee. Rodón could play a big role in ending the Yanks’ Fall Classic drought and help get the AL pennant that Yankee fans are craving.

And he will do it if he can repeat, or at least come close to, his earlier start in this series. More on that in a moment.

After defeating the Guardians 8-6 in another wild game on Friday, the Yankees hold a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. According to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, the 3-1 team has won 79 of 93 times (85 percent) in those seven-game sets. In the current 2-3-2 format with home advantage, teams that were 3-1 and played a Game 5 on the road have won the series 42 out of 49 times, or 86 percent.

Sounds like the Yankees are in good shape. Of course, if we’ve learned anything from this postseason, it’s that nothing is guaranteed other than uncertainty. Relive the final two games of the ALCS: The Guardians overwhelmed the Yanks with a comeback in Game 3 that might have upset a smaller group, but the Bronx Bombers responded by rallying and winning Game 4 against Cleveland’s powerful bullpen , after blowing a four-run lead with their own bullpen running on fumes.

Heck, one of the Yanks’ key contributors in Game 4 was Mark Leiter, Jr, who was only in the squad because he was substituted on Friday due to an injury.

However, Rodón is an important Yankee cog. In Game 1 of that series, he gave up just one run and three hits in six strong innings against the Guardians. It was one of two starts of at least six innings by a Yankee pitcher this October – Gerrit ColeThe seven dynamite frames against the Royals were the other thing – and the Americans won both. In fact, teams are 11-5 this postseason when their starter reaches six frames.

Heavy bullpen use and keeping starters out of opposing lineups are trending for a third time in the postseason. But even this can get out of hand, no matter how trendy or effective it may be. The Guardians’ bullpen, their superpower during the regular season, is currently fizzling out.

During the regular season, Cleveland’s pen had a 2.57 ERA, by far the best in baseball. In nine postseason games it’s 3.83. Only the Mets threw more bullpen innings in October than the Guardians, but they also played three more playoff games. In the ALCS alone, Cleveland’s relief ERA is 4.56 and Emmanuel Clase, He is a weapon as a closer during the season and has a postseason ERA of 10.29.

The Yankees’ excellent relief core is also showing signs of wear after being a key reason the team was eliminated from the Division Series. manager Aaron Boone wanted to stay away from it Luke Weaver, a revelation as a late-season replacement at closer, in Game 4 on Friday. Weaver, who had scored in each of his last two appearances, has been on the field in every other game this postseason.

It can’t help either team’s bullpen that hitters on both sides now have multiple looks at high-leverage arms.

Which brings us back to Rodón’s task: stay in the game. Devour a few innings with the fastball-slider combination and give the bullpen a break.

In Rodón’s first start in October of that year, he struggled through the first innings, celebrating every K. As hyped as he was, he couldn’t sustain that performance, lasting only 3.2 innings, and the Yankees lost Game 2 of the Division Series with the Royals.

To his credit, he worked on curbing his emotions. He said he admired the way Cole kept his cool at the start and watched Cole work. It helped.

“I thought I’d stay inside and just control what was in front of me,” Rodón told reporters in the Cleveland interview room before Game 4. “And everything behind me and things that I couldn’t control, I just brushed against it.” out of. I thought I was very good at it.”

“I think he’s probably the guy I point to the most because he just benefits from the postseason experience,” Boone said before Game 4. “Obviously he’s been in the league for a long time and has had a lot of success . He’s been through a lot with us, struggled last year and bounced back the same way he did this year.

“Pitching in a playoff game for the first time in the Bronx, coming out great, and you could see that emotionally. Everything was great at the beginning, but it probably slowed down a little bit and I think he grew from that.”

Rodón is in a good position at 3-1 and has less pressure to start than if the series were even. His stuff is good and he’s learned a thing or two about rekindling his own inner heat.

Now can he push the Yankees to that elusive AL pennant?