On Monday, the New Orleans Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen after losing seven straight games, including a loss to the struggling Carolina Panthers. Allen became the second head coach to be fired mid-season this year after the New York Jets decided to part ways with Robert Saleh back in October. These two coaches join the growing list of NFL coaches fired mid-season. Midseason layoffs have become more common in today’s NFL; In fact, this is Allen’s second midseason firing, the first coming in 2014 when he led the Oakland Raiders. Since then, at least 19 other NFL coaches have been fired midseason (including Robert Saleh), highlighting a trend that warrants further analysis: Does firing a coach midseason actually change a team’s trajectory?

NFL coach fired midseason since 2014

The NFL coaching carousel is constantly rotating, with head coaches often being hired elsewhere, fired and sometimes rehired. Over the past decade (2014-2023), numerous notable head coaches have been fired mid-season or resigned under pressure. These names include Josh McDaniels, Frank Reich, Brandon Staley, Matt Rhule, Urban Meyer, Jon Gruden, Bill O’Brien, Dan Quinn, Jay Gruden, Ron Rivera, Hue Jackson, Mike McCarthy, Ben McAdoo, Rex Ryan, Gus Bradley , Jeff Fisher, Joe Philbin, Chip Kelly, Ken Whisenhunt and Dennis Allen (in 2014).

On average, these coaches were fired about 9.3 games into their final season, often after a string of poor performances. The number of wins they had before being fired fell far short of the number of games played, with these coaches averaging just 2.45 wins before being fired. This low win rate underscores the urgency with which teams are addressing underperformance in the hope that a midseason change could turn things around.

Only one coach with a winning record was fired: Jon Gruden. However, he was fired as head coach for reasons other than on-field performance, classifying him as an understandable outlier. On the other hand, four of the coaches, including Bill O’Brien, Dan Quinn, Jay Gruden and Dennis Allen (2014), were fired without achieving a single win in their final seasons. These winless coaches averaged just 4.5 games a season before being fired.

Performance under interim coaches

Interim coaches face the difficult task of getting things back on track and stepping in midseason to manage struggling teams that have lost games and are affected by a coaching change. Over the past 10 NFL seasons, interim coaches have managed to outperform the coaches they replaced. On average, interim coaches lead teams for seven games and win 2.55 of them. Overall, their winning percentage is 0.364. Although modest, this reflects a statistically significant improvement in winning percentage, as confirmed by a one-tailed t-test comparing the original head coach’s performance to that of his interim successor. This suggests that interim coaches can provide an initial morale boost that can lead to short-term performance improvement.

Despite this improvement, a .364 winning percentage is typically not enough to advance a team to the playoffs, and few interim coaches are ultimately retained as permanent head coaches. The interim position remains a temporary solution, and teams often look for new leadership in the offseason. However, some interim coaches have bucked this trend and been impressive enough to secure full-time positions.

Most recently, Antonio Pierce exceeded expectations by finishing the 2023 season with a 5-4 record for the Las Vegas Raiders, which, along with his masterful understanding of the Raiders’ culture, led to his hiring as full-time head coach for 2024.

Impact of Mid-Season Fires

In the end, NFL coaches have been fired in the middle of the season, and the interim coaches who replace them rarely produce a dramatic change in team performance. Data shows that while interim coaches may see a small increase in winning percentage, it is typically not enough to change a team’s playoff chances or create a long-term solution. Midseason layoffs often reflect a need to change direction and appease fans and stakeholders, a sign that the team is actively addressing its problems. Ultimately, midseason layoffs are more of a symptom of a team’s deeper problems than a solution, because lasting progress requires not only a new coach but also a comprehensive reassessment of strategy, personnel and long-term planning. For teams and fans, the quick fix of a coaching change may seem promising, but real franchise turnaround extends far beyond the sidelines.