The chances of seeing Rafael early next week are very high as a low pressure system moves slightly north in the southern Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center has given this system an 80 percent chance of becoming tropical within the next 48 hours as it begins to become more organized.

Due to the ongoing pressure gradient, winds will remain breezy to gusty through Thursday next week as we track this low.

Maximum wind gusts will reach about 30 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday, which is not tropical storm force for our area.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

Local impacts will be tropical downpours on Tuesday, Election Day and Wednesday as moisture penetrates deep into the atmosphere.

Localized flooding in areas with poor drainage will be a concern.

Rainfall totals between Tuesday and Wednesday will be between 1 and 2 inches, with high rainfall totals possible in some cases.

Low pressure will move into the southeastern Gulf by midweek and that is where we begin to see more uncertainty.

There is more wind shear and cooler temperatures, particularly in the northern Gulf, which are not conducive to further development of the storm.

We will continue to monitor this system closely with every update!