The Al-Shabab militant group in Somalia has been restricting logging in areas under its control for several years. The militant group has also burned trucks carrying charcoal and arrested workers engaged in the business.

But the reasons for these measures have nothing to do with the health of our planet.

Since 2022 alone, the US military has carried out 32 airstrikes against al-Shabab, killing dozens of fighters, including commanders. Deforestation has exposed the group’s fighting power.

“Al-Shabab is using the forest as a safe haven,” says Badal Ahmad Hassan, senior environmental adviser at Somalia’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change.

Climate expert Nazanine Moshiri, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Washington, agrees.

Based on her conversations with people in Somalia, Moshiri said, al-Shabab “bans the cutting down of trees in the areas it controls and also replants trees in some areas. But I would say that this is less about al-Shabab wanting to be environmentally friendly, like their ban on plastic bags. I would say the ban is more about protecting themselves from drone attacks.”

US drone strikes have killed many al-Shabab leaders over the years, most notably the group’s co-founder and emir, Ahmed Godane, in 2014. Most recently, US strikes killed Maalim Ayman, the commander allegedly involved in planning the attack on Manda Bay airfield that killed a US soldier and two US Department of Defense contractors.

Currently, al-Shabab fighters have dug trenches in the forests to protect themselves from air attacks and strengthen their defensive positions.

Still, some trees continue to be cut down, as al-Shabab partly finances its war against Somali authorities and African Union peacekeepers through the sale of charcoal. The U.S. Treasury Department estimates that the group will earn $20 million a year from the charcoal business as of 2022. This includes charcoal production and sale, as well as taxes on charcoal collected at roadblocks and ports.

Moshiri, a climate expert, was formerly a member of a UN Security Council expert panel that monitored sanctions against Somalia, including a 2012 ban on charcoal exports designed to protect Somalia’s rapidly declining forest cover. She said the charcoal trade supported al-Shabab’s war effort for many years because charcoal was exported to states on the Arabian Peninsula through Shabab-controlled ports such as Kismayo. She says al-Shabab does not enjoy the same benefits today because it no longer controls major ports – although it still collects taxes on everything transported through its territory.

Beyond the long-running struggle between al-Shabab and the Somali government, Moshiri said conflicts in Somalia over land, livestock and water could be exacerbated by climate change. In recent decades, the country has become more vulnerable to droughts and floods.

“We are not saying there is a direct link between climate change and conflict. We are just saying that they can increase tensions that already exist between communities,” she told VOA. “When I talk to local people, herders and communities, they say, ‘We know there will be conflict in this area because it has been raining there and everyone will be moving their livestock there or closer to this area. And there could be conflict because other communities are moving there too.'”

Moshiri said al-Shabab sometimes takes advantage of the climate situation in its control efforts.

“In our research, we found that they sometimes make concessions to clans and communities when they are on the defensive and need those clans when they need support,” she explained.

“But when the position is stronger, the terrorist militia very quickly resorts to harsher methods again. This is shown by the history of al-Shabab and how the terrorist militia has responded to droughts and other problems. In 2011, we saw that the terrorist militia took a very harsh stance that led to famine.”

She said al-Shabab’s tactics varied again during the 2020-2023 drought.

“We saw that they delivered some relief goods and supplies. We actually analyzed that and saw about 127 relief deliveries between April 2021 and November 2022. In some areas, food and water were delivered and a drought relief committee was set up,” she said. “But at the same time, in areas of central Somalia that were disproportionately affected by the drought, al-Shabaab was extremely harsh on certain communities.”

It attributes the harsh measures to the clans’ role in the military offensives by the Somali government and local fighters against the group.

This is the third article in a three-part series on the impacts of climatic events in Somalia. You can read the first part here and the second part here.