CITY HALL — Chicago is facing a nearly $1 billion budget deficit in 2025 — and Mayor Brandon Johnson has not yet said whether he will stick to his campaign promise not to raise property taxes during his first term.

City officials are projecting a 2025 budget deficit of $982.4 million in the enterprise fund – the city’s main operating fund – more than $400 million larger than last year’s estimated deficit.

That forecast takes into account an expected decline in city revenue, including from the state’s personal property replacement tax, as well as increased labor costs and other cost increases, according to materials distributed by budget officials.

That includes a $175 million Chicago Public Schools pension payment for non-teaching staff. Under former Mayor Lori Lightfoot, the city had transferred responsibility for that payment to the school district, but the school district’s most recent budget did not include the cost – one of several issues that have led to increasing tensions between Johnson’s administration and CPS CEO Pedro Martinez.

The uncertainty about who will make that payment this year is also the reason for the $223 million budget deficit for the rest of 2024, government officials said.

During a press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Johnson and his budget team gave a broad overview of the 2025 budget forecast, but declined to reveal details of how they plan to implement it.

Johnson’s specific budget recommendations are expected to be released in October, followed by several weeks of City Council hearings before a vote on the final spending document is expected in November.

This year’s updated budget deficit is almost exactly the same as the city’s previous baseline deficit forecast of $986 million.

“Sacrifices have to be made. This budget gap presents us with a challenge, but it also presents us with an opportunity to change the structure of our budget to ensure that working people in this city can ultimately thrive again,” Johnson said Wednesday. “Our focus is to minimize the impact on city services, programs and, of course, our workforce.”

Johnson repeatedly promised voters during his mayoral campaign that he would not raise property taxes during his first term in office.

But during Wednesday’s press conference, the mayor and other city officials declined to say whether an increase is planned to balance the budget for next year.

“This is just a forecast, it’s a moment, and so no decision is made just on the basis of a forecast,” Johnson said. “But what I will say is that I’m very committed to our overall vision of investing in people and making sure that we fix the structural damage that has been there for some time.”

When asked by a reporter whether this meant that he would not rule out a property tax increase, the mayor again did not give a definitive answer.

“What I can say is that there are a wealth of options … we will continue to work with the city council and all stakeholders to find viable solutions that provide sustainability,” he said.

The $982 million budget gap also includes $150 million in funding for the city’s new arrival mission. The city originally budgeted the same amount last year, but Johnson had to ask the City Council in April to approve an additional $70 million to cover migrant housing and other expenses.

About 5,400 asylum seekers were living in 17 municipal and state shelters on Wednesday, according to city data. This is a significant decline from the 27 shelters that housed almost 15,000 people at the end of December.

And the corporate fund’s 2025 budget will not rely on federal funds from COVID-19 relief policies, city budget director Annette Guzman said Wednesday.

Johnson and budget officials also did not comment on specific proposals that could bring additional revenue to the city, such as a poll tax on businesses or the legalization of video games.

The mayor has tasked the City Council’s newly formed Revenue Subcommittee, chaired by his ally, 6th Noble William Hall, with developing ideas for raising revenue that “do not burden the ordinary population,” Johnson told the Tribune in the spring.

This subcommittee has only met once so far, in June, at which hardly any concrete statements were made.

At the end of Wednesday’s press conference, Johnson said that despite the “significant challenges” evident in the 2025 budget forecast, he remained committed to the progressive agenda on which he was elected.

“There is no decision yet on whether or not we need to make any cuts. This is just a snapshot, isn’t it?” he said. “I remain fully committed to continuing these important investments in housing, mental health and youth jobs.”

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