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What Georgia Tech’s win over Florida State means for Virginia Tech
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What Georgia Tech’s win over Florida State means for Virginia Tech

Yesterday, the impossible happened – again. In a walk-off game very reminiscent of the Miracle of Techwood Drive, Georgia Tech defeated a top-ten Florida State team that was one of the favorites to win the ACC. This win is huge for fans of Florida, Miami and Virginia Tech. This win really opens up new possibilities for Virginia Tech.

The win over the Seminoles not only exposed some of Florida State’s bigger problems, but it also paved the way for the Hokies, who could advance to the ACC Championship later in the season. There are a number of teams hoping to make the championship game at the end of the season, and Florida State could still be one of them. After Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech, the most sensible thing for them to do would be to finish with two losses in the conference and lose a game to Clemson or Miami. For demonstration’s sake, let’s say they lose to Miami. Assuming Florida State can handle its challenges elsewhere, they would have a 6-2 record in the conference.

We’ll get back to Florida State in a minute. Let’s say Virginia Tech gets through the ACC, also loses two games, Florida State’s kryptonite beats Georgia Tech and Clemson, and loses to Miami and another ACC team. Virginia Tech would be tied with Florida State with two conference losses and a 6-2 record.

In this hypothetical scenario, if Miami beats Virginia Tech and Florida State, the Hurricanes could finish undefeated in the conference and represent their name in the ACC Championship Game.

The sticking point in this scenario is Clemson. Clemson would have to lose two more conference games, most likely to NC State or Louisville. Let’s just assume Clemson loses to Louisville and beats NC State but doesn’t finish second in the conference.

If all of this plays out, it’s not unreasonable to assume that the ACC could be in a four-way tie for second place. NC State, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Florida State are all tied for second place in the conference.

In this crazy scenario, the ACC’s new tiebreaker rules would apply. First, you would look at the combined head-to-head winning percentage of the tied teams. If all of the tied teams are common opponents, then those teams are not all common opponents. Second, if all of the tied teams are not common opponents (which is true), then the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams would win the tiebreaker. That team doesn’t exist in this case, so go back down the list. The next tiebreaker rule to consider is comparing winning percentage to all of the common opponents.

The common opponents in this scenario would be Clemson and Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech beat both of those teams. NC State lost to Clemson. Florida State lost to Georgia Tech. Louisville beat both of those teams, so it’s now a tie between the Cardinals and the Hokies.

The next tiebreaker is win percentage against common opponents based on order of ranking (overall conference win percentage, breaking ties and then moving on to other common opponents based on order of ranking). This tiebreaker sounds complicated at first, but it isn’t. Start by finding common opponents and comparing performances, starting with the top-ranked team in the conference and so on.

Louisville has six common opponents with Virginia Tech: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Stanford, Boston College, and Virginia. In this scenario, both teams lost to #1 Miami. The next team in the conference according to this prediction would be Clemson, which both teams beat. Georgia Tech is the same situation. Moving on to Stanford, where Virginia Tech has its advantage. I predicted Stanford to beat Louisville, not Virginia Tech, which is why Virginia Tech will be in the ACC Championship Game.

This would not have been possible without Georgia Tech’s victory over Florida State.

This win is important in other ways, not just hypothetical scenarios. It also makes Virginia Tech look a little better in terms of the schedule. Assuming Georgia Tech’s win pushes Florida State into third place in the conference in the rankings, that would mean Virginia Tech will play the No. 1, No. 2, and possibly No. 4 teams in the conference if Georgia Tech can get its act together.

These games could mean some big wins for Virginia Tech or some quality losses later in the season. Regardless, Virginia Tech’s schedule could be viewed as significantly better once the season is over.

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