As a result, single filers earning up to $107,000 and joint filers earning up to $242,000—three-quarters of Colorado’s population—will see a net decrease in TABOR refunds over three years. Higher earners, on the other hand, will see a net increase in TABOR refunds.

For example, individuals filing jointly who earn between $52,000 and $107,000 will see about $300 less during this period. However, individuals filing jointly who earn over $319,000 will see an increase of $1,459.

“This demographic trend highlights something we have known for a long time: across-the-board income tax cuts only increase income inequality. They disproportionately benefit the already wealthy,” said Joshua Mantell, financial adviser at the left-leaning Bell Policy Center.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, indigenous peoples, blacks, Hispanics, people with disabilities and people living in rural areas are most likely to receive lower reimbursements in Colorado households.

Lawmakers also passed House Bill 24-1311 this year, which created an affordable family tax credit for parents earning up to $85,000. The bill’s sponsors, including the new director of the Bell Policy Center and Democratic Rep. Chris deGruy Kennedy, touted the bill and another bill to expand the state’s earned income tax credit as an important strategy to combat child poverty in the state.

“(SB-228 and HB-1311) should complement each other,” Mantell said. “A significant portion of the money has gone to the family tax credit to ensure that low- and middle-income families with children can afford basic needs and cover living expenses.”

“People who are not eligible for these tax credits because of the income requirements can get some money through the TABOR refunds. That evens things out a little bit,” he said.

The amount of the credit depends on household income and the number of children. The maximum credit is $3,200 for each child under 6 years old and $2,400 for each child between the ages of 6 and 16.

A recent legislative analysis found that the average loan for eligible applicants would have been $2,427 based on 2019 statistics.

According to census data, about 17% of Colorado residents live in a household affected by the law. Indigenous people, blacks and Hispanics are significantly more likely to be affected by the law.

Although the impact of the bill will result in lower TABOR refunds overall, it will result in comparatively large tax savings for those who qualify for the credit. For example, a taxpayer filing jointly who earns $50,000 and has one child could see a $116 reduction in their TABOR refund but a tax savings of $2,811 due to the credit.

“These are the people who need help,” Mantell said. “It’s extremely important to make sure these people see the financial benefit.”