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The risks of a Ukrainian invasion of Russia

HISTORY: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border incursion marked a significant turning point in the nearly two-and-a-half-year-long war with Russia. It was Kyiv’s biggest attack on Russian territory since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022. International security expert Dr Marion Messmer of the London-based think tank Chatham House told Reuters there were likely multiple strategies at play. “My best guess is that on the one hand Ukraine wanted to push Russia back, perhaps to increase their influence in upcoming negotiations. And it also seems to have been an attempt to divert Russia’s military attention from what they were pushing forward… And that seems to have worked quite well.” Until its surprise attack, Ukraine had been losing territory to Russian forces. Messmer says it was a risky move. “One risk, of course, is that we have already seen that Russia has a lot more military personnel than Ukraine. And while Ukraine has managed to decimate the Russian forces to some extent, it has to decimate its own forces a lot as well.” And Russia will probably try to hit back hard because it obviously puts it in a bad light. And Putin will not want that to happen again. So that could result in significant losses for the Ukrainian military, which will be much harder for Ukraine to absorb than for Russia, which doesn’t necessarily face the same personnel challenge. “Messmer said Ukraine’s counteroffensive has probably lifted the spirits of the soldiers … at least for now.” “I think the counteroffensive has done a lot for morale so far. I mean, Ukrainians know that the alternative to war, if it goes badly for them, is not good. And that’s one of the reasons they’ve been so engaged and behind the government. And I think that very successful counteroffensive has led to a real sense that Ukraine could win the war. But of course, it could go the other way if Russian attacks intensify as a result. “Ukraine’s top commander said on Monday that Kyiv controlled about 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s Kursk region seven days after the incursion began.