Weren’t these the results you expected on Tuesday evening? I’m talking about the College Football Playoff’s first top 25 ranking, where many were shocked to see Indiana, BYU and SMU ranked completely wrong.

I can’t say I was surprised. Simply disappointed.

But since the CFP committee spoke and gave us one of six data points to consider through the remainder of the season, we have a much clearer picture of where teams stand in terms of who might be in and who might be out could be.

We know that every game from now on will be about playoff bets. Obviously, pretty much every team needs to keep winning. But which game has the most potential impact in the top 25 rankings in Week 11?

Here are my Week 11 games with the biggest impact on the 2024 College Football Playoff:

The Hurricanes are 9-0 and continue to navigate ACC landmines each week. Now can they avoid disappointment in Atlanta against a Yellow Jackets team that likely doesn’t have a starting quarterback? Haynes King? The bees stung Mario Cristobal last season for its galactic failure to take a knee at the end of the game, so Miami will be looking for a little retribution.

The Canes have a bye a week after Saturday. So if they get past Ga. Tech, they’ll be 10-0 and potentially a top-three team when they take the field again in two weeks.

The Rebels’ season is on the line Saturday against Georgia Lane Kiffins The team has a shaky record in its composition – so it has to win to get into the playoffs. A win over the Bulldogs would also give the Rebels a decisive advantage for a possible SEC Championship berth.

Georgia can afford a loss with its win at No. 5 Texas and a loss at No. 23 Clemson. The Dawgs also have No. 7 Tennessee on deck next weekend. But a win at Ole Miss would result in UGA (which currently has about an 84% chance) making the field.

By ranking the Hoosiers at No. 8 — behind Miami, Texas, Penn State and Tennessee — the committee essentially told us, “We think Indiana is good, but.” not so good.” Curt Cignettis With a loss to Ohio State, the team will likely be safely in the field at 11-1. But that’s not a guarantee.

It would really be up to the Hoosiers to continue beating teams, starting with Michigan this weekend. Texas is coming off a 19-point win over the Wolverines earlier this season, so Indiana will need to better that to earn a resume that includes 103rd place on the schedule.

While BYU And Iowa State Although Colorado remains the favorite to win the Big 12, it at least has a possible path to Dallas after all the carnage within the conference last weekend. But the Buffs still have three straight games left to finish the season, starting this weekend at Texas Tech. Shedeur Sanders And Travis Hunter should have a field day against a terrible Red Raiders secondary, but can the Buffs’ improved defense handle business against it? Tahj Brooks, Behren Morton and a good TTU offense?

Deion Sanders’ The team has about a 36% chance of winning the Big 12 title and an 11.6% chance of winning the league – but it needs to win and get help (a loss at Iowa State). Oh, and Texas Tech can’t be completely ruled out either! The Red Raiders could be the only P4 team NOT in the initial Top 25 CFP rankings and could potentially reach the 12th team with a Cinderella run over the last month. At 6-3 (4-2 in the Big 12), Texas Tech needs to win and lose to Kansas State and Iowa State, where it would hold the tiebreaker over the Cyclones. We’re talking about a 3% chance that whatever happens will happen. But in the words of Lloyd Christmas: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

How does a match between two unranked SEC teams impact the CFP rankings? Let me explain. With apologies to Louisville, South Carolina might be the best three-loss team in the country. If the Cocks beat a 6-3 Vandy team in Nashville, it will be ranked next week – which would mean another “quality win” for one of the Alabama-LSU winners and perhaps Ole Miss if the Rebels beat Georgia .

If the Dores move to 7-3, they’ll likely be in the top 25, which would give Texas another ranked win and make Alabama’s loss not look so bad. After a bye week, Vandy finishes the season at LSU and against Tennessee – two other teams vying for playoff spots.

Remember: the back half of these rankings has only one impact: to justify how the teams at the top are placed.

Saturday night’s Death Valley showdown is a playoff elimination game – period. Both teams have a quality win, two losses and an SEC profile that improves their current rankings.

The Crimson Tide are actually the favorites on the road, a win by Jalen Milroe & Co. would still be bad news for the second-tier contenders in the ACC (SMU, Pitt) and the Big 12 (Iowa State, Kansas State and Colorado). ) – all of which are already behind Alabama.

Why is this game here when the Sooners are 5-4 and Missouri is lucky to even be ranked? Because the only reason the 6-2 Tigers — who are HOME OUT against OU this weekend — are even justified in the rankings is because they improve on the records of Alabama and Texas A&M with another “rankings win.” Both teams are anxious for Mizzou to stay in the top 25 for visual reasons.

The Cougs were hosed down in the top CFP rankings. For all the talk about Indiana, BYU has twice as many ranked wins (at SMU, Kansas State) as four of the teams ahead of them (Indiana, Tennessee, Penn State and Texas) combined (Vols’ win over Alabama).

So Kalani Sitakes The team must win at least as far as the Big 12 title game to have a chance of making the 12-team field — which means winning a second straight Holy War for the first time since 2006-07.