BOSTON – What’s happening to the weather in Massachusetts? At first that was it dryness. Then this came Forest fires. And now we’re breaking temperature records.

In fact, we have set a new record in each of the last three weeks.

Of all the unusual weather events that have occurred recently, Wednesday may have won the day.

First, we broke the old high temperature records in Boston and Worcester.

Even more impressive, Wednesday’s high of 82 degrees was the lowest the city has ever reached or exceeded 80 degrees in the year. Therefore, it was also the warmest temperature ever recorded on November 6th or later.

This begs the question: What is happening?

What’s behind the record heat in November?

We can divide it into three categories:

1. A very persistent and repeating weather pattern.

Week after week we have seen the same atmospheric constellation re-establish itself again and again.

A large area of ​​high pressure covers much of the Northeast, bringing us a few cool days and frosty mornings. The high drifts off the coast and the southwest winds on the backside are pumping very mild air into New England.

We get a weak cold front to break up the heat and then we start all over again.

It is not uncommon for a weather pattern to want to repeat itself over a period of weeks or months. Some of our wettest and snowiest periods have come from being on the “wrong side” of an entrenched pattern.

2. Drought often leads to warmer temperatures.

When the ground is dry, the sun can warm the air more efficiently. Conversely, when the ground and vegetation are wet, part of the solar energy (heat) is used to evaporate moisture and is therefore “lost”.

In our country’s history, some of the worst heat waves have emerged from droughts.

3. Climate change.

It’s easy to just chalk up any extreme weather event Climate changebut the data tells us we can’t ignore it.

This year, Boston set five new high temperature records and zero low temperature records.

Extended: Over the past 15 years, Blue Hill Observatory has recorded 54 “Top 10 Warmest” months and only one “Top 10 Coldest” month.

These include the first, second, third, sixth, ninth and tenth warmest autumns.

While we have seen some warming in all four seasons here in Boston, winter and fall saw the most significant and rapid increases.

How long will the warm weather last in Boston?

Where do we go from here? How long will we stay stuck in this pattern?

We certainly don’t see any major changes in the next 1-2 weeks.

Overall, temperatures are likely to remain above average.

There is hope for a few rain events next week. The first, on Monday, looks easy and rather insignificant. Later next week (Thurs-Fri) we may have our first real chance to get some truly beneficial rain…time will tell.

Does a warm November mean less snow?

Finally, there is a meteorological phrase that we often refer to this time of year: “As November goes by, so does winter.” This means that the weather in November can often be an indicator of what the situation is like Winter will go.

This raises the stakes even further over the next few weeks.

A sudden pattern change could have short and long term effects.

If this pattern continues, it could mean a third mild and relatively “snowless” winter in a row.