Topline

With polls showing a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in battleground states, it is possible that states will need to conduct recounts after Election Day if there is only a narrow vote margin between the two politicians – or the losing candidate could demand one.

Important facts

Where are recounts most likely?

It remains to be seen what the final vote count will be and which states will conduct a recount, as polls in all seven major battleground states suggest the election results will be extremely close. Pennsylvania and Nevada have particularly small distances. Averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight show the two candidates within 0.5% of each other in these states based on recent polls.

Could recounts delay the certification of the election?

Recounts are ordered after states have certified their election results — meaning all votes are counted and final — so a recount does not stop a state from being called for either Trump or Harris. While specific deadlines for recounts vary by state, candidates must request recounts quickly, within days of the results being certified. That means recounts can be conducted and completed without affecting election deadlines, well before Congress certifies the final results on Jan. 6. In Georgia, for example, the state reaffirmed Biden’s 2020 victory in early December 2020, after conducting both a machine recount and an audit of the state’s results that included a manual recount.

Will recounts change the election results?

Although recounts can have an impact on the election result, in practice this rarely occurs. The nonpartisan group FairVote, which advocates for ranked-choice voting, conducted a review of all recounts between 2000 and 2023. She found that only 36 statewide general election recounts had taken place during that period – out of 6,929 total elections – with only three recounts actually reversing the election results. These reversals all occurred in races where the difference between candidates was less than 0.06%. FairVote found that recounts typically change an average of about 551 votes and often widen the gap between candidates rather than narrowing it.

Important background

Polls show Harris and Trump virtually tied heading into Election Day. A polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight on Monday shows Harris up 48% to 46.8%. The race is widely expected not to be called on Election Day itself, and the results are likely to be similar to 2020, when it took several days for the race to be called for Biden due to wildly different results in battleground states . In 2020, recounts were conducted in Georgia and some counties in Wisconsin, and Biden’s margin changed during the audit in Georgia, although none of the recounts ultimately affected the final results. In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein called for recounts in three battleground states after Trump won the presidential election, but only Wisconsin actually conducted the recount. Stein later dropped her recount requests, which cost her nearly $5 million to file.

Further reading

ForbesTrump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris leads in the last two polls – as most polls show a razor-thin raceFrom Sara Dorn

Forbes2024 Election Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Harris in 4 States, Tie in Georgia (Updated)From Sara Dorn
ForbesThese key swing states don’t count mail-in ballots in advance — it could take days for results to come backFrom Alison Durkee