With the presidential election as close as ever, many will be trusting statistician Nate Silver to make his predictions.

Polls show that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck, with the lead only being measured at a few percentage points.

Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight but is no longer affiliated, said essentially the same thing in his recent column, writing that “50-50 is the only reliable forecast.” The New York Times (NYT). But he also wrote that his “gut feeling says Trump.”

Here’s what Nate Silver said about the former president, his chances of winning the Nov. 5 election and how he might achieve that victory.

What Nate Silver says about Donald Trump’s chances of winning

Silver put Trump’s chances of winning at 53.4 percent in his Thursday forecast, over Harris’ 46.2 percent announced on his Substack The Silver Bulletin.

Both Trump and Harris would have to “outperform their polls” to win, he said, before explaining that polls and different methodologies could lead to both candidates being underestimated.

Silver argued in his NYT column that the polls may underrepresent Trump supporters because pollsters didn’t reach them in the “non-response bias.”

He wrote: “Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they may be less inclined to respond to a news organization’s survey.”

Silver went on to explain why he believes the fact that Trump’s opponent is a woman could work in his favor.

“The only time a woman was nominated to run for her party, undecided voters were heavily against her,” he said, referring to Hillary Clinton, who ran against Trump in 2016.

What Nate Silver’s poll aggregator says about Donald Trump

The Silver Bulletin is a “direct descendant of election forecaster FiveThirtyEight,” which is known for correctly predicting the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election in 49 of the 50 states and the 2012 U.S. presidential election in all 50 states.

In 2016, when FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 29 percent chance of winning, Silver was one of the few analysts to emphasize that this indicated a real chance he could win. In 2020, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Joe Biden would win.

The Silver Bulletin, which gives more weight to reliable polls, had Harris leading on Thursday with 48.5 percent, ahead of Trump’s 47.4 percent.

But it also put Trump ahead in five of the seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

However, Silver wrote, “While Trump made significant gains in our mid-October forecast, we believe there is little sign that the race is moving further toward him in the final week and the seven key swing states remain incredibly close.”

Nate Silver’s predictions for different election results involving Donald Trump

Silver calculated the odds for several different outcomes, including Trump:

• Trump wins the popular vote: 26.2 percent
• Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College: 0.5 percent
• Trump wins with a majority (at least 50 percent of the vote): 16.7 percent
• Trump wins in a landslide (double-digit majority in the popular vote): 0.1 percent
• Trump wins at least one state that Biden won in 2020: 87.8 percent

Newsweek Trump’s team emailed for comment.