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    • Current polls on Harris vs. Trump
    Michigan

    Current polls on Harris vs. Trump

    Caradoc Wyn Posted on

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    The race for the White House between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remains incredibly close with less than 24 hours until polls open across the United States.

    A latest set of national polls shows Vice President Harris and former President Trump statistically tied as the candidates make their last-minute pitches to woo any remaining undecided voters.

    As national polls continue to forecast a race far too close to predict, Harris has been found to be leading Trump in Iowa, an unexpected turnaround for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential race as a certain Trump victory.

    As the candidates race to the finish line, Trump is holding four rallies in key swing states, starting in North Carolina before traveling to Pennsylvania for two campaign stops and concluding the day in Michigan. Harris, meanwhile, will wrap up her campaign in Pennsylvania with rallies in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, followed by a concert in Allentown.

    Live updates on the 2024 election: Trump and Harris make final pitch before Election Day; new polls

    TIP

    TIPP’s latest tracking poll, released Monday, shows Trump and Harris tied at 48%.

    The poll of 1,411 likely voters, conducted Friday through Sunday, found a statistical tie with less than 24 hours remaining until polls open. The survey had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

    “Significantly, 6% of voters say they could change their mind in these final hours, making every moment crucial as the race approaches Election Day,” TIPP noted.

    Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the ABC News/Ipsos poll

    In a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday, Harris leads Trump by three percentage points.

    The poll of 2,267 likely voters showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 46% a day before the election. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, showed Harris’ lead was outside the margin of error of 2 percentage points.

    “This narrow three-point difference with Trump is in line with the average gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last eight presidential elections, with Democrats winning a majority of the vote in seven,” ABC News reported. “Nevertheless, the result leaves a wide field open to the whims of the Electoral College.”

    “A disheartened electorate marks the end of the 2024 presidential campaign,” the poll says. It highlighted that 74% of likely voters say the country is on the wrong path and 60% are dissatisfied with their choice of candidates.

    However, political affiliation also correlates with voters’ attitudes toward the economy: 78% of Trump supporters say they are doing less well under Biden, while just 8% of Harris supporters say the same. As the vice president tries to distance herself from Biden, 34% of respondents said she would maintain the status quo if elected, while 35% said she would change things for the better and 31% for the worse.

    Trump and Harris were tied in the latest NBC News poll

    Harris and Trump are deadlocked in a new NBC News poll released Sunday. It shows that both candidates are supported by 49% of registered voters.

    The poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, showed a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

    The poll defined the contest as highly polarized, including a gender gap of more than 30 points that separated the voting preferences of men and women. And regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided, the poll found.

    According to the survey, voters’ attitudes have changed little since last month, “despite the hectic campaign activity of recent weeks and billions of dollars in advertising.”

    “We have grown further apart and chosen our side,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. “Each side is as fixed as it can be, and they don’t budge or move.”

    Harris maintains a slight lead over Trump in the latest Morning Consult poll

    In the final Morning Consult poll released on Sunday, Harris was ahead of Trump by two percentage points.

    The poll of 8,918 likely voters showed the vice president leading the former president 49% to 47%, outside the 1-point margin of error.

    “The majority of likely voters (45%) said they had heard something positive about Harris recently, maintaining the positive buzz advantage she has had throughout the campaign in recent weeks,” the poll said which was carried out from Tuesday to Thursday.

    Meanwhile, 49% of respondents said they had recently heard something negative about Trump.

    Republicans are more favored than Democrats when it comes to dealing with the economy, national security, crime and especially immigration. Democrats retain their confidence advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion.

    The candidates are tied in the latest Emerson poll

    Harris and Trump are tied at 49% in Emerson College Polling’s final poll released Sunday.

    The poll of 1,000 likely voters found a nearly identical stalemate when respondents were asked who they expect to win: 50% expect Trump to be the winner, while 49% named Harris. The poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

    However, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in popularity ratings: 50% have a positive opinion of Harris and 48% have a positive opinion of Trump.

    The results “point to an incredibly close race,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The gender gap is wide: women favor Harris by 12 points and men support Trump by the same margin.”

    Heading into Election Day, the economy remains the top issue for voters at 40%, followed by immigration (17%), threats to democracy (16%), abortion access (7%) and health care (5%).

    What you should consider when taking surveys

    The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

    If a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

    Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump’s performance.

    Eric Lagatta covers breaking and breaking news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]

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