Liz Loza and I got into the Halloween spirit last week with our props and delivered more treats than tricks. We managed five of our six points, with Davante Adams being the only outlier in the group.

Now I’ve learned what many lifelong New York Jets fans have known since birth: Never trust the Jets. I’ve learned my lesson and will stay away for the rest of the season.

Jets props notwithstanding, Liz and I will do our best to recreate our Week 8 heater as we prepare to give thanks for all the good bets on our doorstep here in Week 9.

So without further ado, let’s dive into the awesome week 9 props! — Daniel Dopp

All odds at the time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Quarterback props

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Where does Baker Mayfield stand after a great eighth week in fantasy?

Liz Loza explains where she would rank Baker Mayfield among fantasy quarterbacks in Week 9 against the Chiefs.

Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-120), OVER 224.5 passing yards (-155)

Loza: Opposing offenses are attacking the Bucs at a relentless rate of 37 pass attempts per game (the second most in the NFL). That was a good strategy considering Tampa Bay’s secondary gave up the third-most passing yards in the league (2,191). As a result, Mayfield has been forced to breathe and is averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game (QB2).

There was much consternation that Mayfield’s numbers would drop since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out of the lineup in Week 8. While the Bucs ultimately lost to the Atlanta Falcons, Mayfield completed 37 of 50 pass attempts for 330 yards and three scores on Sunday. It was Mayfield’s third straight game with more than 300 yards.

In this pass he faces a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is much more stingy with the run than with the pass. In fact, despite a penchant for blitzing, Kansas City has only recorded a disappointing 15 sacks (tied for the seventh-fewest) in 2024. As 8.5-point underdogs, Mayfield and the Bucs must put the ball in the air to remain competitive. That’s why I’m taking over his pass props in prime time.

Running back props

David Montgomery any time TD (-115)

Double: Let’s update last week’s prediction with some new numbers for the Week 9 game against the Green Bay Packers. First, it looks like there could be some weather in this game, and when it rains we usually have a limited passing attack, which would result in Knuckles having more opportunities to do what he does best. Second, after scoring a TD last week, Monty has now scored in six of seven games and is third among RBs with seven rushing touchdowns. He also dominated at the goal line with ten rush attempts that resulted in five touchdowns inside the 5-yard line. His 10 attempts rank fourth behind Derrick Henry (12), Jonathan Taylor (11) and Kyren Williams (11). He is considered one of the best goalie defenders behind this stout Detroit Lions offensive line.

From a defensive perspective, the Packers have given up six touchdowns to RBs this year, including one to the aforementioned Williams in Week 5. They were pretty stiff against the run, but a strong defense didn’t slow Detroit down one bit. The Lions scored in the last one four games 42, 47, 31 and 52 points each. With this offensive firepower, you can expect Monty to land at least a few shots on the goal line.

De’Von Achane OVER 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-118)

Double: The divisions with and without Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback are pretty wild. In four games without Tua as a starter, Achane has 189 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns. In his three games with Tua, Achane has recorded 412 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Like I said, pretty wild.

Achane’s efficiency comes from the fact that the defense must respect the passing game, with players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretching the field and keeping the safety honest rather than sneaking to the line and piling up the box. In fact, Achane has at least 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in every game Tua has started this year. We love this as we’ll have Tua back in focus here in Week 9.

But that’s not the only thing we love, as we also love this matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who have allowed the sixth-most yards per rush attempt this season (4.8) and have allowed four different running backs this year to reach that mark, with three of those defenders surpassing 165 yards from scrimmage. That’s not a typo. The Bills have allowed Derrick Henry (209 yards), Breece Hall (169 yards) and Achane (165 total yards in Week 2) to dominate them in a variety of ways this year. And while proximity doesn’t count in sports betting, Dare Ogunbowale, Travis Etienne Jr. and James Conner were all within 6 yards of that line this season.

None of these defenders have the home run ability that Achane possesses to break off a long ball, and that’s part of what we’re hoping for – top-notch rushing efficiency and pass utilization, something Achane had when Tua plays.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-145), Anytime TD (+115)

Loza: If the Patriots can stay competitive, Stevenson can produce, as evidenced by his two-touchdown attempt against the Jets in Week 8. The 26-year-old has been admittedly inefficient, averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry in consecutive games. Return games. However, when the game script works in his favor, the volume has offset the sins of wasted steps. The Patriots enter the week as 3.5-point underdogs at Tennessee, which portends a fairly close game against a 1-6 team that has suffered three straight losses.

Additionally, the Titans traded one of the team’s most influential defensive players, sending Ernest Jones to Seattle last week for Jerome Baker. With Jones out of the lineup, Tennessee was overwhelmed by Detroit’s rushing attack, giving up 164 rushing yards and nearly 7.0 YPC. Assuming Stevenson records 14 totes (he’s averaging 14.9 carries and 4.1 YPCs this season), he’ll average nearly 60 rushing yards in an exploitable matchup.

Alvin Kamara OVER 100 rushing + receiving yards and any time TD (+105)

Double: Kamara faces the Carolina Panthers this week.

I tried to conclude my analysis there, but my editors assured me that I needed to be a little more thorough. I’m not sure why though. If you have watched or listened to football or even thought about football in the slightest, you know that the Panthers defense is not very good. Honestly, it’s worse than not very good.

Five different running backs have led this line, including Kamara this season. And while it doesn’t count from our perspective, the Panthers also gave up 170 scrimmage yards to the combination of Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Why do I mention this? Because this is a backfield that splits touches while the Saints ONLY rely on Kamara to move the ball. Kamara has 161 touches, with the next closest RB having a total of 36 touches. It’s clear that this is a one-back room, so Kamara should be able to get a lot of touches, and it’s even more exciting to likely have Derek Carr back at center for the New Orleans Saints.

Alvin should add yards galore and also find pay dirt given the Panthers’ inability to stop the RBs. So far this year, Carolina has allowed 15 TDs to the running back position, more than any other team in the NFL.

Wide receiver prop

Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 yards (-115)

Loza: It was a season of ups and downs for Sutton. However, things are looking up for him at the moment. Bo Nix’s play has improved and the matchups have been positive for the veteran wideout. Sutton has recorded at least 50 receiving yards in four of his last six games and is on pace for his first 100-yard receiving effort, converting an impressive eight of 11 looks.

I wouldn’t bet on Sutton hitting triple-digit yardage again this Sunday, but with the Denver Broncos on the scoresheet in Baltimore (-9.5), it’s safe to assume there will be plenty of opportunities for Denver’s No. 1 WR. Sutton should convert those shots as well, as the Ravens are allowing a 67.2% completion rate. Additionally, Baltimore’s secondary has given up the most receiving yards in the league, a whopping 2,493 (an average of 311 per game).

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