If you look at just one opinion poll before the US presidential election, many think it should be Ann Selzer’s.

The Iowa-based analyst predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, when almost every other crystal ball was shattered.

Her reputation for accuracy has been cemented by numerous correct predictions in various U.S. political contests before and since, to the extent that she was even referred to as an “oracle.”

Most observers expect Tuesday’s election to be one of the closest in history, but Selzer’s poll when it was released over the weekend made a clear statement, and that’s good news for Kamala Harris.

More on that later.

Another sample released early Sunday local time showed encouraging signs for the Democratic nominee, suggesting she could have a narrow lead over Trump in several battleground states.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris leading among likely voters in the swing states of Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia.

It predicted that Harris and Trump would be deadlocked in Michigan and Pennsylvania, one of Tuesday’s most lucrative elections with its 19 Electoral College votes.

All results were within the margin of error except one, in which Trump comfortably flipped the state of Arizona by 49 percent to 45 percent.

Harris and her Republican opponent have spent the final week of the campaign crisscrossing the country, particularly targeting seven states considered to be tortfeasors.

That’s what makes Selzer’s Iowa sample so interesting – she doesn’t belong.

Trump won the state by more than 8 percentage points in 2020 and is not considered “in play” this time. In fact, Harris hasn’t even personally campaigned there.

But the Selzer sample, published late Saturday in the Des Moines Register, said Harris would lead the state among likely voters 47 percent to 44 percent.

While the result was within the margin of error, analysts pointed out that even a narrow defeat for the Democratic nominee in a state Trump had predicted he would win would bode well for her in closer races.

At a rally in Litiz, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, Trump called the Selzer poll “fake.” He also railed against the result on social media, pointing out that he had led Iowa by significant margins in several other polls.

Polls by Emerson and Rasmussen showed the former president winning the state by about 10 points.

Michael Miller, a 62-year-old Trump supporter, told ABC outside the rally that he wasn’t sure which way the election would go.

“We’re all here, it looks like, ‘Wow, everyone’s here because of President Trump!’ But you know, if you go to another rally where Kamala and Tim Walz are, you’ll have the same vibe there,” he said.

“They will think they have the edge so it will be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday.”

“I don’t even know if we’ll have a winner on Tuesday night.”

Carrington Frick, a 23-year-old Trump supporter, agreed.

“It is difficult. The polls fluctuate back and forth. It’s pretty much a mess,” he said.

“So we just have to try to spread the message as widely as possible and get as many people you know to vote.”

Meanwhile, participants polled by ABC outside a Harris rally in East Lansing, Michigan, predicted a close race.

Paula Pulter argued that women would be crucial to the outcome.

Polls have consistently shown Harris leading among female voters, but Trump leading among men.

“I really believe that women are going to be the voting bloc that trumps them,” Ms. Pulter said.

“I think we are finally making our voices heard and giving her the support she needs to win this election.”

Joicen Spratling, 19, was also at the rally.

Mr. Spratling said he believed polls showed Michigan would be an exciting race.

“This is too close for comfort. I don’t know how so many people can support him (Trump) after the things he did and the things he said and after the four years he was in office and corrupted it,” he said.

“It’s scary that it’s so close, but I think it’s true.”