The Nevada football team hosts Colorado State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Rams with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in collaboration with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Colorado State (5-3, 3-0 MW) and Nevada (3-6, 0-3)

When: Saturday, 5 p.m

Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)

Surface: FieldTurf

Weather: maximum value of 54; low of 31; 20 percent chance of rain

TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: None

Betting line: Colorado State by 2.5; total 44.5

All-time series: Colorado State leads 14-5

Last matchup: Colorado State won 30-20 on November 18, 2023 (in Fort Collins).

Three keys to the game

1. Stop CSU’s running game: This is not your Jay Norvell wolf pack. Norvell’s Nevada teams, especially in the last two seasons, were all Air Raid with almost no running game to speak of. But this year’s Colorado State team is a run-heavy team that rushes the ball nearly 60 percent of the time. Part of that is wideout Tory Horton’s season-ending injury, but the Rams were already using two tight end sets before that. Colorado State has a good offensive line with running backs Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall rushing for 1,121 yards and eight touchdowns. Morrow, the Nevada alum, is fourth among MW running backs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Nevada lost four key defensive linemen, including three starters, in last week’s game against Hawaii, so it’s anything but good. The defense was also without top-class midfielder Tongiaki Mateialona in the last two games due to injury. The Wolf Pack has allowed five of its nine opponents to average at least 5.0 yards per carry. Colorado State’s season average is 4.9 yards per attempt. After Hawaii ran for 242 yards last week — nearly 160 above its season average — this run defense needs to be stronger.

2. A healthy Brendon Lewis: We saw what Nevada’s offense looked like without Brendon Lewis last week in Hawaii, and it wasn’t good. The Wolfpack moved the ball well in this game – 380 total yards, including 286 passes – but struggled on key downs, converting just 7 of 17 third and fourth downs, well below their season average. Nevada entered the red zone just once in nine complete possessions. Lewis is expected to return to action this week against Colorado State after missing the Hawaii game with an unspecified injury. Lewis has been one of the MW’s better quarterbacks this season and faces a Colorado State defense that is holding conference opponents to just 14.3 ppg, despite that defense outscoring the three power conference opponents they have faced has allowed 39.7 ppg, so some vulnerabilities need to be exposed for better offense. With Nevada’s running back room struggling, the Wolf Pack needs a strong performance from Lewis, who was playing his best ball at Nevada before being injured against Fresno State.

3. Create multiple sales: Nevada’s defense was not an opportunistic group, with just nine takeaways in nine games. The Wolf Pack has forced multiple turnovers only once, in a 42-37 win over Oregon State (Colorado State lost to the Beavers in overtime). CB Michael Coats Jr. has four interceptions to lead the defense in takeaways, but Nevada has yet to make a mistake this season. It is one of three FBS teams that failed to do so. Colorado State has been a bit turnover-prone, as quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi led the MW with 16 interceptions last season (he has five more this year). The Rams also lost seven fumbles with 13 total giveaways. Nevada needs to give its offense a few extra possessions by putting together its second multiple-takeaway game of the season.

forecast

Colorado State 24, Nevada 21: The biggest X-factor in this game is Nevada’s health, which took a hit last week in Hawaii when the Wolf Pack lost nearly a dozen starters or second-line players at points during the game. Some, but not all, of these players will be back. Motivation is also a big factor as Colorado State is one win away from its first bowl berth since 2017 and is one of three undefeated MW teams in league play, so with a strong final month a conference championship spot is on the line. I do think Nevada will come away with a spirited performance, and Lewis’ return certainly helps, but the Wolf Pack’s injury problems may prove too much to overcome as Norvell looks to go 3-0 against Nevada. Season balance: 6-3 (straight up); 5-3-1 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into sports in Northern Nevada. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.