WASHINGTON – All polls – except one in Shreveport – appear to indicate that the presidential race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump is neck-and-neck.

According to a Siena College poll commissioned by The New York Times, the candidates each polled 48% in the popular vote. “MS. “Harris is struggling to gain an edge over Mr. Trump among an electorate that appears impossibly and unshakably divided,” the Times reported Friday.

The Hill, a Washington political publication, reported Friday that Harris has a 1% lead over Trump, according to 287 polls.

The Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls give Trump a lead of several points.

Looking ahead to what is being dubbed “Pollmageddon” around the U.S. Capitol, Shreveport pollster Vantage Data House sees a trend of Harris claiming victory starting Nov. 5.

“Whether it’s faulty polls, media spin or a voter retention strategy, reality is starting to break through. This election could turn into a bust, and it’s time to focus on the actual data — not just what we’re told,” Vantage concluded in an analysis posted to its subscribers on Wednesday titled ” “The bankruptcy that no one saw coming” was published.”

“We’re not fortune tellers, but the data we’re seeing says exactly the opposite of what everyone else is saying,” said Vantage CEO Bishop George, who acknowledged that releasing the group’s results would be a big roll of the dice for the future of the company.

“I give our subscribers what the data says,” George said.

Vantage’s co-founders were George, a longtime political researcher, and Jim Kitchens, a pollster who, against all odds, predicted in 2015 that Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards of Amite would become the top Republican power broker in U.S. Sen. David Vitter of Metairie for governor ruby red Louisiana.

Vantage has been tracking seven swing states every day since August. Until recently, the race always seemed to be back and forth, George said. But a few days ago, the numbers began to move away from Trump.

Roy Fletcher, a longtime Baton Rouge political strategist, respects Vantage but is unconvinced by the company’s recent analysis.

Every morning, Fletcher checks the latest polls and sees that about 10% of voters decide whether Trump or Harris wins.

Most states, like Louisiana, are either solid blue or solid red and will support either Harris or Trump accordingly.

Seven states recently switched between Republican and Democratic candidates. How these swing states vote will determine whether their Electoral College votes go to Harris or Trump – 270 are needed to elect the president.

“That’s what the race is about right now. I don’t see a collapse,” Fletcher said. “I understand what Vantage is saying, but Trump and his people are feeling pretty darn comfortable now.”

Fletcher said the numbers in swing states increased for Trump, but all of those results are within the margin of error, meaning the majority votes in those states could go one way or the other in the final week of the election.

Vantage compared their results with FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, both of which addressed concerns about poll analysis. All results are within 1 to 2 percentage points, well within the margin of error.

According to Vantage, FiveThirtyEight shows Trump leading in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. Real Clear Politics had Trump leading in all of those states, as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Vantage said their numbers suggest Trump is leading only in Arizona among those swing states.

“The election will likely be decided by something that hasn’t emerged yet,” said professor G. Pearson Cross, a political scientist at the University of Louisiana at Monroe who also spends much of his day analyzing poll data.

“The missing ingredient, whatever it is, is likely to move to one side or the other,” Cross said, adding that he predicts Trump will win.

One reason – possibly several – is the unprecedented enthusiasm of female voters, George said, due to issues such as abortion access and a growing discomfort with Trump’s misogynistic comments, such as references to the late golfer Arnold Palmer’s genitals.

Vantage polls show that women with no party affiliation are voting for Harris in swing states, he said.

“Look, when you’re the underdog in this industry, it’s scary,” George said. “The numbers are moving a lot. There is a possibility that it could be reversed. But the lines now show Trump’s support is weakening.”