Kamala Harris enters the final weekend of the presidential campaign with a narrower lead over Donald Trump than her Democratic predecessors Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton had at comparable points in the 2020 and 2016 races.

Poll analysis shows Harris’ lead in both national and swing state polls is significantly smaller than Biden’s and Clinton’s, suggesting a very close election on Tuesday.

A deep sense of uncertainty hangs over the presidential campaign in the final week of the race. With four days left until Election Day, both Harris and Trump are not letting up and are waging a furious campaign in the battleground states.

The gap is smaller for Harris

With early voting already underway in many states, Harris has a modest lead over Trump in the national polling average. According to poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight, she leads by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters reporting support for her, compared to 46.8 percent for Trump.

However, RealClearPolitics shows Trump slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent compared to Harris’ 48.1, giving him a lead of 0.3. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin has Harris leading with 48.5 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, a margin of 1.1. The New York Times shows a similar result: Harris is at 49 percent to Trump’s 48, a single point in her favor.

This is in sharp contrast to the peaks held by Biden and Clinton in their respective election years. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 8.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight, and has consistently maintained his lead over other poll aggregators such as RealClearPolitics and 270toWin.

This trend was similar in 2016, when FiveThirtyEight’s model had Clinton with a 6.2-point lead over Trump at the same time, and was confirmed by other poll aggregators such as RealClearPolitics and 270toWin. Although Clinton won the popular vote, she lost in the Electoral College.

As Election Day approaches, Harris may be leading in national polls, but her path to the necessary 270 votes in the Electoral College has tightened. Like Clinton in 2016, Harris may win the popular vote, but the electoral map poses challenges.

Trump, on the other hand, has recently gained ground in key battleground states. According to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions on Friday, the Republican candidate has a 52 percent chance of winning, with Harris at 48 percent. The updated model reflected several strong poll numbers in Trump’s favor in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast also favors Trump with 53.8 percent compared to Harris with 48.8 percent. Both forecasts take into account simulations that analyze voter behavior and trends in individual states.