Donald Trump has suffered a setback for his election campaign. Three new polls suggest he is trailing his opponent, Kamala Harris, in key battleground states crucial to his path to victory.

According to the latest Marist polls conducted between October 27 and October 30, Harris is leading Trump in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

For Donald Trump to win the election, he must unseat one of these three blue wall states from Harris. Because if Harris manages to retain those three states that Biden won in 2020, and also gets what is likely to be the only electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, then she will have exactly 270 electoral votes needed to win the election . as the map below shows.

Polls have been very close in all three states, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker currently showing Harris leading Michigan and Wisconsin by less than a point, while Trump leads Pennsylvania by 0.7 points – after Harris previously beat him in that one State had led.

Meanwhile, individual polls in all three states fluctuated, with candidates generally staying within a three-point lead. However, the four most recent polls from Pennsylvania suggest Trump has a 1- to 3-point lead among likely voters.

But the latest Maris polls show a more positive outlook for the current vice president: Harris leads by 3 points in Michigan and by 2 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Their lead in all three states is within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

According to the poll, Harris has gained a lead among independent voters in all three states. In Michigan, she leads Trump among independents by 6 points, up from 2 points in the previous Marist poll in September. In Wisconsin, she also leads among independents by 6 points, up from a four-point lead at the start of September. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Harris is seeing a huge increase in her support among independents. The vice president is now 15 points ahead, after Trump led her by 4 points among independent voters in September.

Harris surpasses Joe Biden’s 2020 performance among independents in Pennsylvania by 6 points, while her lead among independents matches what Biden won in Michigan in 2020. In Wisconsin it is still well below the double-digit lead that Biden had over Trump in 2020.

Overall, Harris’ margins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have increased since September, when the previous Marist poll showed her ahead by just one point in Wisconsin while the two candidates were tied in Pennsylvania. But her lead has narrowed by 2 points in Michigan since September, when she was 5 points ahead.

Nonetheless, “driving the Michigan presidential vote count is the fact that there are more voters who have a better impression of Harris than of Trump,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Trump’s positive assessment is upside down. His negative rating significantly exceeds his positive rating.”

In Michigan, 43 percent of residents have a positive opinion of Trump, compared to 53 percent who have a negative opinion of him. For Harris, her positive rating is 48 percent, while 47 percent have a negative opinion of her.

Newsweek emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns seeking comment.

With less than a week to go, the election seems closer than ever. Poll aggregators are currently suggesting Harris will win the popular vote while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College, which would send him back to the Oval Office. Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast shows Harris ahead by 1.1 points and with a 74 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, based on Trump’s position in the swing states, his forecast assumes Harris has a 46 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Trump has a 54 percent chance.

Meanwhile, 538 shows that Harris has a 1.4 point lead nationally, but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of victory compared to Harris’ 48 percent. According to both aggregators, Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which would give him enough Electoral College votes to send him to the White House.

However, if Harris won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would receive enough Electoral College votes to win the election.

Silver’s forecast shows Trump has a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states on November 5th.