Could the battleground states of the presidential election ultimately be as uncompetitive as the just-ended World Series?

That’s the question posed by a new set of swing-state polls from Atlas Intel, which show Donald Trump on track to 287 electoral votes if Tuesday’s projections come true.

And the key to the former president’s performance in these polls is that black voters are supporting Trump to a degree that other polls on the race do not show, pointing to a possible rift in a historic Democratic coalition that dates back more than half a century.

With the exception of a narrow 0.2 point lead for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, where she has 49% to 48.8% for Trump, the Republican candidate is leading in the swing states that will decide the election.

Among 1,005 likely Arizona voters surveyed, the Mar-a-Lago man leads 50.8% to 45.9%. He leads Harris by almost 7 points among men, more than 4 points among women and almost 2 points among independents.

Trump wins more than 5% of Biden 2020 voters, while less than 3% of Trump voters switched to Harris in the last election cycle.

The former president also received 26% of the black vote in the state, along with more than 45% of the Hispanic vote.

Among the 1,212 likely voters surveyed in Georgia, Trump leads 48.8% to 47.2%, positioning the former president to surpass another state Biden won in 2020.

People who don’t remember voting in 2020 or who didn’t vote at all are crucial here, as Trump has a 20-point lead among them. He received more than 25% of the black vote. He also has nearly 50% of Asian support, with the rest split largely between Harris and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has more than 18% support among them.

Among the 1,136 likely voters in Michigan, Trump has a slim lead: 49.2% to 48.3%, with Spoiler Stein at 1.7% in the Wolverine State.

What’s notable in this poll is Trump’s strength among black voters: the former president is at 39.9% and Harris at 54%. One reason for this could be that he wins 8% of Biden 2020 voters, while Harris only converted 4.1% of Trump supporters last cycle.

Nevada also appears to be on track for Trump, as shown by this sample of 845 likely voters, who voted for the Republican candidate 50.5% to 46.9%.

As in the other states, Trump’s black support (33.7%) is notable. He also leads among Hispanics (49.7% to 48.2%) and independents (50.1% to 42.7%). And he wins over 8.9% of Biden 2020 voters while retaining 97.2% of those who voted for him four years ago.

In North Carolina, where 1,373 likely voters were surveyed, Trump has majority support: 50.7% to 46.7% for Harris, although a smaller share of black voters support him (19.7%) than in other states in the sample.

Trump leads here 50.2% to 44.1% among independents as the gender gap works in his favor. In the men’s category he has a lead of more than 15 points; For women, he is 7 points behind.

Among the 1,738 likely voters in Pennsylvania, Trump also has a slight lead: 48.5% to 47.4%, a margin consistent with the last two exciting results in the Keystone State. This is where including 24% of black voters makes all the difference.