The Democratic and Republican candidates in the Nov. 5 battle for the White House have turned their attention to two key swing states in the southwestern United States as the grueling campaign enters its final days and descends into a dead heat.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both held events Thursday in Arizona and Nevada, whose large Latino populations could influence the election outcome.

But first, Trump made a detour to Albuquerque, the largest city in New Mexico, a state he lost by 11 points in 2020 and is not expected to be competitive this year.

“I’m here for one simple reason: I like you a lot and it’s good for my reputation in the Hispanic or Latino community,” Trump told rally attendees.

Latinos, who make up an estimated 14.7 percent of all eligible voters in the U.S. this year, have traditionally favored Democrats but have recently leaned more heavily toward Republicans.

The latest New York Times/Siena poll found Harris supported by just 52 percent of Hispanic voters, well below the 66 percent who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump closed the gap in 2024 with 42 percent of Hispanics, the poll found.

However, that dynamic may have changed somewhat after a headline comedian made a series of crude jokes about migrants and Puerto Rico at Trump’s rally in New York on Sunday, prompting several Latino leaders and celebrities to support Harris.

“No one loves our Latino community and our Puerto Rican community more than I do,” Trump said after distancing himself from the comedian.

Polls are stuck

Later Thursday, Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Hendersonville, Nevada, before joining former Fox News host Tucker Carlson for a live show in Glendale, Arizona.

Harris, for her part, will start the day with a rally in Phoenix, Arizona, before traveling to neighboring Nevada. An event in Las Vegas will feature pop icon Jennifer Lopez, who has openly supported the vice president, and Mexican rock band Mana.

The westward advance comes as Trump and Harris remain all but deadlocked in the polls and the seven key swing states are likely to decide the race too narrowly.

According to the poll results, Trump currently has a slight advantage in the states of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris has a small lead in Wisconsin and Michigan. The polls show the candidates in Pennsylvania and Nevada are several tenths of a percentage point apart.

What is concerning for both parties is that Hispanics have not historically voted in large numbers in past elections. That trend appears to be repeating itself this year in early voting.

According to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, more than 62 million people have voted early, with Hispanics so far lagging far behind other racial and ethnic groups, accounting for just 2 percent of votes cast, more than 10 percentage points below The group’s share of eligible voters lies, according to the Pew Research Center.

Black voters, on the other hand, are voting early in greater numbers, making up 22 percent of early voters compared to 14 percent of their share of registered voters.

Women fought their way into the polls early on

In several states that track gender data, women also outperform men in early voting by a margin of nearly 11 percentage points (54 percent versus 43 percent).

That could be an encouraging sign for Harris, who is leading Trump in the polls among women and has tried to incorporate reproductive rights into her campaign message.

Earlier Thursday, Harris rebuked Trump for his comments the previous day that he wanted to “protect the women of our country … whether the women like it or not.”

Harris said the statement was “offensive to everyone” and “very offensive to women because they don’t understand their agency.”

Trump, she told reporters, “is not prioritizing women’s freedom and women’s intelligence to make decisions about their own lives and their own bodies.”

immigration

Trump, meanwhile, is betting that frustration over the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policies will swing the border state of Arizona back in his favor after current President Joe Biden beat him there in 2020.

Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant who has studied Latino voting for decades, told Al Jazeera that the race could depend on which party does better with its traditional voting blocs.

“Republicans are pinning their hopes on young, U.S.-born Latino men, while Democrats are betting on the migration of more college-educated white Republican women. Whoever is right will win the race,” Madrid said.