The National Weather Service says this winter could be warmer and wetter than usual in southeast Michigan.

The agency recently released its seasonal outlook for the region. It predicts the likelihood of various weather scenarios based on 30-year averages.

The probabilities suggest above-average temperatures and precipitation between December 1, 2024 and February 28, 2025.

Meteorologist Trent Frey says a phenomenon called La Nina will affect our weather patterns.

“La Nina is when the waters of the Pacific Ocean near the equator are cooler than the long-term average,” Frey said. “It influences where the jet stream forms during the winter months, and that influences how it controls storm systems across North America.”

Winter is coming…right?

The last two winters in southeast Michigan have been among the 10 warmest since the U.S. government began keeping records for Detroit in 1874. Frey says 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record for Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. He says warmer winters are becoming more common.

“Climate change is manifesting itself here in southeast Michigan as our winter months become warmer much more quickly than our summer months,” Frey said.

Read more: Sour weather is causing problems for Michigan’s sweet cherry growers

The average high temperature in Detroit in the winter is 35 degrees Fahrenheit. According to Frey, the normal temperature has increased by about one degree in the last 15 winters compared to the longer 30-year average.

“It may not seem like much, but it’s pretty significant,” Frey said.

Slushy, anyone?

Southeast Michigan typically receives about 65 inches (165 centimeters) of rain and nearly 3 feet (90 centimeters) of snow per year.

Frey says it’s hard to predict how much snow will fall this winter.

“In the last five weeks of La Ninas, we’ve seen two of them have above normal snowfall, two of them have less than normal snowfall, and one of them has had near normal snowfall,” Frey said.

The forecasts for last winter correctly predicted warmer temperatures, but slightly underestimated precipitation.

“It actually ended up being a little wetter than normal,” Frey said. “But because we were so warm, our snowfall ended up being about 20 inches below normal.”

The NWS Detroit forecast office recorded nearly 2 feet of snow in 2023-2024. This is the 16th lowest annual snowfall total in the region.

The agency is recruiting volunteers to serve as winter weather observers.