While the Knicks and Heat have long been considered Eastern Conference rivals, the rivalry had taken a bit of a backseat due to the Knicks’ ineptitude and continued failures. But since the two teams met in the second round of the playoffs in 2023, the hatred has been reignited, at least on the New York side. Those feelings were magnified last season when Julius Randle suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after the Heat’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. slipped under Randle and attempted to call an offensive foul. After that game, however, the two teams went in pretty different directions.

The Heat were unceremoniously eliminated from the playoffs after suffering a 4-1 loss to the eventual champion Boston Celtics in the first round. And much of the conversation surrounding the Heat and their offseason revolved around how incomplete and flawed their roster was and how the future of star shooting guard Jimmy Butler appeared to be in flux. Meanwhile, the Knicks defeated the Sixers in the first round and, despite several serious injuries, were just one game away from reaching the conference finals. And unlike the Heat, many were looking forward to the Knicks and what they could accomplish this season thanks to their performance in 2024 and the additions of Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns.

However, three games into the season, it is Miami that comes into today’s game with a better record. The Heat have taken advantage of a weak schedule early in the season, moving to a 2-1 record after a season-opening loss to the Orlando Magic after wins against both the Hornets and Pistons. And that’s with a top-10 defense, once again led by Bam Adebayo, and a very balanced offensive attack, with not a single player averaging more than 20 PPG, but also three players averaging more than 17 PPG have. Equally impressive is the fact that they lead the league by one Assist percentage of 73.6%, which is over 25% higher than the Knicks, who rank 29th in the league at just 48%.

Planned starters

The Heat fielded the same starting lineup of Terri Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic and Bam Adebayo in all three games. So there is no reason to believe that anything will change tonight. Adebayo will anchor the defense, which is currently ninth in the league in defensive ratingwhile the trio of Rozier (19.3 PPG), Herro (18.3 PPG) and Butler (17.3 PPG) give Miami a very balanced attack.

However, unlike Miami, New York could see a change to the starting lineup as Josh Hart is currently listed as a game-time decision. If he can’t go, expect Deuce McBride to join the quartet of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns.

forecast

Miami has more momentum from two wins against underperforming teams and also has a lot more continuity than the Knicks currently have. That, along with the home advantage and the fact that Hart could miss tonight, makes them favorites for tonight’s clash. In fact, ESPN currently has the Heat a 60.7% favorite. However, the last few games were relatively close. Since 2022, seven of the last ten games between the two teams have been decided by 10 points or fewer.

I think Miami takes advantage of Hart being either out or limping and pulls out a narrow win against a Knicks team that is clearly still figuring out how to play with each other. The Heat’s lack of offensive explosiveness and Brunson coming off an uncharacteristically poor game will keep the game close, but ultimately the Heat win 108-104.

Game details

WHO: New York Knicks at Miami Heat

When: Wednesday, October 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Regard: MSG Network, Fubo, NBA League Pass

Consequences: @ptknicksblog