KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – There were drastic changes in severe storm activity yesterday as we instituted a level three severe thunderstorm threat for the area. Nothing has changed this morning and rain and storms are more likely to occur between 2pm and 11am tonight, with the most severe storm activity occurring between 7pm and 11pm

In the meantime, we have a wind advisory in effect until 7 a.m. with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour. Temperatures will continue to rise between 68° and 71°, with only a gradual increase into the mid 70s through this afternoon as gusts drop to 30 mph.

The change in severe weather probability occurred due to a lower level jet stream that introduced healthy wind shear at a constant 50 knots. We have continued to bring in deep moisture from the south and with reasonable CAPE values ​​around 2000 J/kg the atmosphere is just well adjusted enough to accommodate any severe weather threats at this point.

As we approach 2 p.m. It’s likely we’ll see isolated or isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. During this time, there may be one or two severe storms that randomly spread across the region ahead of the front.

This will continue on and off until we approach early evening between 5pm and 7pm when the front will be introduced from the west. This second round between 7 p.m. and midnight is the main event. We expect a line of strong storms to develop along the front, with a high potential for severe storms. Wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph are possible within these storms as they intensify. Hailstones are expected to range in diameter from a marble to the size of a chicken egg.

The risk of a tornado developing has also increased, but is isolated. Tornado warnings appear more possible for the region, including the metro.

As we approach the evening, it is important that you have a plan for this severe thunderstorm activity.

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The storms are moving quickly through the region and we expect them to exit the metro between midnight and 2 a.m. Thursday morning.

This will make for a quiet but chilly Halloween. The trick-or-treating forecast from 5 to 9 p.m. will gradually drop from the mid 50s to the upper 40s, with winds below 5 mph not a concern.

Several new storm systems are developing as we begin the weekend, bringing prolonged rain and storm activity. We are seeing more overall confidence in thunderstorm development, but there is still not enough information to provide details on a severe weather threat. Conservatively, what we are seeing is steady rainfall between 3 and 5 inches. There will be a lot of water in a short period of time, which may cause flooding problems due to the dry conditions in recent weeks.

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