OKLAHOMA CITY (KOKH) — After the weather warning days due to the risk of forest fires on Monday and Tuesday, we have another one, but this time due to severe storms. We have all the ingredients for severe weather. The question will be whether they all come together at the right time and in the right place. The possibility exists, and that’s why our focus is shifting from fires to storms. Fires could still occur in far western Oklahoma, but the storms will impact a much larger portion of the state.

A dry zone is likely to produce the storms later this afternoon and evening, with a cold front sweeping everything east. Add to that the warm temperatures, higher dew points, a strong jet stream and some wind shear; and you have the makings of a severe fall weather event.

Although they are not as common as in the spring, a slight increase in the number of tornadoes is observed in the fall. We call this our “second season” and there is a chance we may see some isolated tornadoes, especially after dark today.

The Storm Prediction Center has most of our area in the low risk zone. There is an increased risk extending from Kansas to northeastern Oklahoma, primarily due to this tornado threat. Check out each threat below.

As you can see, storms can produce winds of 60 to 80 miles per hour, hail up to the size of golf balls, and even a few isolated tornadoes.

The question in forecasting at the moment is where and when the storms will form. Below are model approximations from the HRRR model showing how storms form later and closer to I-35:

In the HRRR model, storms essentially form later and further east. This would also speed up the time it takes for individual cells to form into a line. This would limit tornadic potential somewhat, as linear modes favor strong winds.

For comparison, below are NAM model images showing storms developing earlier and further west:

Both models show a long line of storms as they pass I-35 after midnight. Where and when the storms form varies. The NAM solution would increase the threat of tornadoes by keeping the storms longer than individual cells, especially shortly after dark when the low-level jet begins. We will learn more about this question in the morning.

For now, be weather aware and download the Fox 25 Weather app! We will have the latest information there on the threats and when!

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