NBA players aren’t scoring the same points they used to. This has been true since around 2012, when players began shooting significantly more threes per game than ever before.

While the context of each individual shot attempt certainly still plays a role, mathematics has driven this trend with full force.

It took some time for every player and coach to accept the grace of the three-point shot. Brandon Ingram, DeMar DeRozan and Kevin Durant are still taking plenty of jumpers from inside the arc. However, if the reigning champion Boston Celtics are any indication, all teams will follow suit.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are no exception.

Anthony Edwards has an old school game. As an advocate for the middle class, he can jump into a pull-up like anyone else. With 39 three-point attempts through the first three games of the 2024-25 season, Edwards is transforming into something different.

He’ll always have that classic feel in the midrange (and the power to get to the rim), but he’s developing the three-point flair of the contemporary.

Just four years into his career, he may not be able to convince the referees to blow more whistles. His strong physique can pave the way into the alley. However, it may prove difficult to further improve his field goal percentage from the sidelines. It could happen, but the rapid growth of young players may soon come to an end for Edwards.

The most important thing here will be to increase the number of three-pointers attempted per game.

Using Euclidean distance, which measures the distance between two points as a line segment, I found the scorers most similar (and dissimilar) to Edwards based on their field goal attempts per game, points per game, shooting percentages and more.

This may not be the case with this method full Catch players similar to Edwards. However, players like Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Tim Hardaway, Brandon Jennings and LaMelo Ball are among the top 10 most similar to Edwards – it could be worse.

These players achieved similar hitting numbers and percentages, with shot selection roughly the same as Edwards’. Of course, this doesn’t take into account other shooting nuances like positioning, catching and shooting/off-screen, etc.

Still, it offers a glimpse into how Edwards could make another jump in scoring.

Edwards’ first four seasons are comparable to several bowling ball guards from the early 2000s and midrange maestros from the late 2010s.

Hardaway, Antoine Walker, Baron Davis, Bradley Beal, Jason Richardson and Kemba Walker fit into one or both of these categories as they enter the fifth year of their careers. They are all well below the top 100 most similar players in the previous method.

These players increased at least 1.5 points per game from Year 4 to Year 5, including 5.8 points per game for Davis, 3.6 for Walker, 5.7 for Beal and 3.1 for Hardaway.

They all made at least 1.3 more three-pointers per game during the same period.

The table below shows various statistics for the fourth and fifth years with jumps.

Not every player fits this mold. Gilbert Arenas and Luka Dončić posted the biggest jumps in points per game despite making fewer three-pointers per game.

Dončić already made 8.8 three-pointers in his fourth season, so the drop to 8.2 wasn’t a problem complete Reverse shot selection. He improved from 28.4 points per game to 32.4, reached the finish line three times per game and dramatically improved his efficiency from inside.

Arenas dropped from 7 to 6.8, but made nearly two more field goals and two more free throws per game, improving from 25.5 to 29.3 points.

Edwards may not be able to follow in the footsteps of Dončić and Arenas.

A team only has a limited number of shots available. Edwards needs to coexist with Julius Randle on a team that can benefit from pindowns, rotations and movement. With his surrounding pieces, there is no reason to push Edwards into a higher and higher usage role.

Edwards is not the ball-dominant Dončić, and Arenas could be an outlier in his rise to the top of the goalscoring list of his era.

Still, Edwards can push himself and his team further with more than a few more forced threes per game, and his shooter mindset could push him even further up the scoring charts.

Modern scorers from the list above, like Beal and Walker, have adapted to the league’s norms.

As a sophomore, Walker plateaued at around 17.5 points per game, only rising to 20.9 in his fifth season when he made 6 three-pointers per game, up from 4.5. En route to his first All-NBA team honor in his eighth season, Walker ultimately averaged a high of 8.9 three-pointers and 25.6 points per game.

His mid-range skills didn’t fade, but Walker rode the three-point wave instead of fighting it.

It’s not that Edwards can’t still make mid-range shots; it’s that he seems to have room for more threesomes.

He has the characteristics of a dangerous downhill rider. But he also has the touch of a modern distance shooter. If he focuses on the latter, he could get more out of himself and his team.