A simple look at the score or an examination of fantasy football categories doesn’t always reveal a player’s full performance. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers that are worth looking into.

Yes… The numbers lie.

George Pickens’ only touchdown catch is a lie

Pickens has just one touchdown catch despite seeing the third-most targets in the red zone and the most inside the five-yard line this season. Pickens has the fourth-lowest percentage of fantasy points from touchdowns among the top 36 WRs. Pickens is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but he is the WR13 in expected fantasy points. An increase in playing time and a change at quarterback will help him meet those expectations going forward.

Pickens posted a season-high 93% route share last week when he also received a whopping 70% air yards share from Russell Wilson. His air yards per target was a season high and he led all WRs in fantasy usage by a wide margin. Pickens posted a YPRR of 2.40, also drew the second-most pass inference penalty yards in the league and saw two targets inside the five, nearly doubling his total the previous season (three). He has posted a first read target rate of 46% and 40% over the last two weeks and ranks sixth in the ESPN Open Score this season.

Pickens benefited from a lucky jump and injury to Sauce Gardner last week, but it’s clear he will benefit from Wilson taking over. Fields has averaged just 184.3 passing yards this season, an increase from his career mark of 169.1. Wilson has averaged 232.4 passing yards in his career and has historically been a leader in end zone targets. There will still be plenty to do in Pittsburgh, but Pickens’ schedule is changing from difficult to favorable. The Steelers faced top-eight defenses in WR fantasy points allowed in four of their last six games, but faced bottom-eight defenses in six of seven games after their bye.

Pickens’ stats are misleading as he has a lead in the top 20 championship going forward.

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De’Von Achane’s RB24 ranking is a lie

Achane has been a fantastic disappointment despite being the RB24 in points per game this season. He left a game after just 11 snaps and Achane is the RB10 in expected fantasy points, so his role was incredibly encouraging. Of course, Tua Tagovailoa’s injury was the primary cause of the lack of performance, as Miami averaged fewer points per game than the last two winless teams and the Bryce Young-led Panthers.

The Dolphins’ offense wasn’t particularly impressive with Tagovailoa earlier this season, but they posted 400 yards (6.2 YPP) in Week 1 (in a favorable matchup). Achane is facing a touchdown regression and has the second-most carries with a touchdown, and Miami’s lowest red zone TD% (35.7) in the league is sure to improve. Achane operated as RB1 and had a strong utilization score when Raheem Mostert returned last week.

The Dolphins have the sixth-highest implied team total this week (25.5 points), so Tagovailoa’s return is expected to have a significant impact. Achane could be a top-10 RB if health cooperates.

Jordan Mason’s three TD runs are a lie, BUT…

Mason has the second-most carries and second-most rushing yards, but he’s stuck with three touchdowns since September. Mason hasn’t been used as a receiver nearly as much as Christian McCaffrey, but he’s tied for the league lead in red zone carries with Kyren Williams. Both backs have eight more in RZ rush attempts than the next closest RB, and Williams has scored eight touchdowns. Mason has three carries inside the 10 more than any other running back, but he has only converted one of seven carries inside the 5 into points.

Mason was tackled at the 1-yard line last week, and the 49ers’ sixth-worst TD percentage in the red zone (45.1) is expected to decline after the team led the NFL last season (68%). Mason is clearly facing a TD decline despite averaging the eighth most touches per game (19.7). He also has a great game against Dallas, while San Francisco may be without Deebo Samuel, among others.

However, Mason is dealing with a sprained shoulder that limited him at practice on Wednesday, and his game on Sunday night could carry additional risk. Additionally, McCaffrey is expected to return following the 49ers’ bye in Week 9, so Mason’s role could quickly become less important soon (CMC’s health, to be fair, remains a big question mark).

Mason was an excellent flyer/waiver wire addition in the late round, even if he scored fewer touchdowns than expected, but his role could look very different after the bye.

Josh Jacobs’ only TD run is a lie

Jacobs ranks third in carries and fourth in rushing yards this season, but he ranks 37th in touchdown runs. He is one of only six defenders to have seen 100% of their team’s tackles inside the five-yard line, where Jacobs made just one of six tackle attempts; He was 10 of 19 in those situations over the past two seasons.

Emanuel Wilson only had a 21% snap percentage last week and Jacobs averaged 19.3 touchdowns over the last three games. Green Bay is averaging the seventh-most points per game (26.6) despite Malik Willis starting twice. Jordan Love has done incredibly well with touchdown passes, as his 8.4% TD rate leads the league by a wide margin – and would be the highest in a season since Aaron Rodgers (8.7%) in 2020. Jacobs averaged 11 rushing touchdowns in 2020-2022, and Love’s TD rate will decline.

Jacobs picked up his first career TD catch last week and has more rushing results to come.