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Here’s a look at how Schmidt and Buehler performed in their two shortened seasons.

Due to a lat strain that kept him out for over three months, Schmidt was limited to just 16 starts this season, but was great overall when he was on the mound with a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. After returning from injury, he made five regular season starts where he had a 3.65 ERA, 3.69 FIP and 1.30 WHIP with 26 strikeouts and ten walks in 24.2 innings. He has thrown a total of 9.1 innings this postseason, most recently in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Guardians. He allowed two earned runs over 4.2 innings, allowing five hits and two walks with two strikeouts, and had a very similar outing against the Royals in the ALDS, where he also went 4.2 innings while allowing two earned runs. Hardly anyone on the Dodgers saw Schmidt, while Ohtani only saw him a few times and flew past him once.

Schmidt lives outside the zone quite often, with only about 40% (near the 25th percentile) of his pitches landing in the strike zone. This can be a good strategy, but every now and then you’ll run into teams that will make your life difficult if you’re not willing to get into the zone more often. His skills are good, and he limits hard contact in the zone, so he should probably try to stay ahead of hitters and trust his skills, as giving out free passes against this offense will lead to trouble. The Dodgers didn’t face Cole or Rodon, so Schmidt’s game plan should be similar to theirs (though it didn’t necessarily work out for Rodon).

He had fairly pronounced splits in 2023, with a WHIP of 1.65, a FIP of 4.85, and a strikeout rate of 18.0% versus a walk rate of 8.4% against left-handed batters, compared to a WHIP of 1.10, a FIP of 4.05 and a strikeout rate of 24.9% versus a 4.9% walk rate against right-handed batters. The splits have essentially disappeared this season, eliminating nearly a third of the lefties he faced, albeit with an accompanying increased walk rate. He throws four pitches, and more or less he throws them all to left- and right-handed batters. He relies on a 92 MPH cutter as his primary offering, throwing it 35% of the time and sometimes preferring it against lefties. He also throws a sinker just over 94 MPH 21% of the time, resulting in two different variations of “fastballs.” It has a knuckle curve and sweeper that sit in the mid-80s, with the curve sweeping and sloping significantly more than your average curveball, with the sweeper moving more like a traditional slider.

Buehler has now made two starts this postseason, the first being a relative shelling in San Diego that he didn’t necessarily deserve, resulting in six earned runs over 5.0 innings. As I noted in my NLCS Game 3 preview: “He gave up a very legitimate home run Fernando Tatis Jr.but it’s entirely possible that Buehler could have gotten a five or six inning start with two or fewer earned runs. Instead, it was five innings and six earned runs. Buehler has struggled mightily this year and deserved a much better performance from his defense in this game. Either way, it’s a thing of the past and relatively inconsequential today.” It actually turned out to be inconsequential, as he went on to get off to a great start against the Mets, going four innings and allowing no runs on three hits and two walks with six Allowed strikeouts. It wasn’t perfect, but it gave the Dodgers time to take the lead and his team looked as good as it’s ever looked all year. His 18 whiffs created were a season high and his pitches were truly moving in the cold New York weather. He will make another start in similarly cold October air, a situation in which he has thrived throughout his career.

“Buehler is in a transformation phase as a pitcher. The playoffs and World Series aren’t the ideal time to attempt such a transformation, but if anyone is going to succeed, it’s Buehler. He has featured in big games in the past and Dave Roberts Is a true believer in Buehler’s ability – even this version by him.”

He threw 88.2 innings in the postseason, with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with 107 strikeouts, and two of his best career postseason appearances came in the World Series. In Game 3 of 2018 against the Red Sox, he pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits with seven strikeouts in the 18-inning game that the Dodgers ultimately won. In Game Three of the 2020 World Series, he pitched six innings against the Rays, allowing just one earned run on three hits and one walk, along with ten strikeouts. He will look to maintain his record of performances in Game 3 of the World Series tonight.

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Not much news before the game. Brent Honeywell Jr. spoke to the media at the spot generally referred to as the next day’s starter, but claimed he didn’t know if he would start tomorrow. Utilization of the bullpen game will likely depend on how Buehler fares today.

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First pitch is at 5:08 p.m. PT on FOX.